Arcadia, California- This year will be the 30th running of the Breeders Cup and will be contested for the 7th time at Santa Anita Park. The east coasters continue to grumble, but let’s be fair, where else can you get 80 and sunny weather in November? Florida might be an option but past venues of Churchill Downs, Belmont Park, & Monmouth Park have only offered cool temps and an unfriendly fan environment. This particular east coaster loves to hit California this time of year and as a gambler getting a fair playing field you can’t ask for anything more. (As a side note, the 2014 BC will also be held at Santa Anita)
The biggest change this year is the elimination of the Juvenile Sprint taking us back to 14 Cup races total. I actually liked the Juvy Sprint although both years contested it didn’t yield any future champion runners in the small sample.
The angle I am going to focus on is experience at Santa Anita. I know only 2 local based California runners won last year, but the truth is the saying, “horses for courses” is something all handicappers need to be cognizant of. The downhill turf is very tricky, speed goes a long way on both the dirt and the infield; do not ignore runners who have had past success here.
Both Friday’s & Saturday’s undercard races are amazing. If you are a horse player, be prepared to be in heaven for 2 days, I know I will be.
From wagering option menu we will still have .10 cent Superfecta’s available on all races as well as .50 cent Pick 3’s, (2) .50 Pick 4’s, and Trifecta’s available, as well as a .50 Pick 5 for both days.
The weather leading up the event has been seasonal temps with little precipitation; the forecast for both Friday and Saturday call for warm temps and sunny with no chance of precipitation, absolute picture perfect weather which should allow for a fair playing racing strip.
Enough chatting, let’s look a little deeper into the races:
Friday
Race 6 Breeders Cup Marathon
This typically is my favorite race, but I like full fields for value and with only 10 horses I am not as enthused. This will be the 6th edition and so far the shortest price winner was 6 to 1 (was a 10 horse field) so tossing the favorite is usually a good idea. Despite the idea that this race might actually have gained some attraction in North America with some preps leading up to this, the fact remains none of the US contingent runners have experience at 14 furlongs.
Contenders:
#2 Cease- At first glance, hard to like a horse that prepped for this going 7 panels in his last start and now has to double that distance, but he did contest this race at Churchill in 2011(finished 5th). In that race, he stalked and popped and looked like a winner until getting picked up late. Outside of the foreign invaders, he looks as good as any to get the distance. Trainer Jacobson rarely leaves NY and after plucking 100K down to purchase this guy, commits a cross country journey which might have been in the plans before he dropped the slip, lots to like.
#4 Ever Rider- Argentina invader likely to be over bet as his country’s predecessor, Calidoscopio shipped in here last year and destroyed that field winning going away. There running styles however are a complete contrast as this guy likes it upfront on or near the lead and I expect he will have company with Commander & London Bridge. He has been stateside for months working extremely well, could be any kind.
#7 London Bridge- lightly regarded Euro has one thing going for him as distance shouldn’t be a problem. Besides that, he has many questions to answer such as will he take to the dirt and he is another that likes to be on or near the lead which could end up being crowded. He has been fairly well supported in England and he likely has the most upside of any runner in here, intriguing but demand some value.
Betability:
This field shapes up like the island of misfit toys in Rudolph the Rednosed Reindeer as none of these runners have found their way. I have little to no confidence in any of my selections and will likely play a Dr. All button in a multi-race wager options. Demand a solid value price before diving into the waters.
Race 7 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Always a great race to handicap and bet as the full field insures value plays no matter what end of the pool you decide to jump into. In the previous 6 running’s, 5 of those were won by Euro’s and they bring another strong hand to this year’s dance.
Contenders:
#5 Bobby’s Kitten- My best bet on the entire weekend, I was enthralled with his maiden score only hoping for a duplicate feat against winners which he provided. I feel he could be something real special and shows the ability to race either way. Has been strongly backed at the windows in New York and now the whole world will know who he is.
#9 Wilshire Boulevard- Hails from two time winner of this race Aidan O’Brien barn, comes into this as the most experienced runner in this field and hasn’t missed a dance showing up at both Longchamp & Ascot. Breeding and running lines suggest the stretch-out should be right up his alley, sheds a few lbs. for this and to me is the best European chance.
#4 Outstrip- Hasn’t caught firm turf in 4 career tries and it looks as if he has turn of foot which is scary in these races. I also like the fact he picks up local rider Smith who seems to win everything in sight. The inside draw should put him in catbird seat for one run, big chance.
Betabilty:
I usually go shopping in this race, but I am locked into my pick and will only use a couple others I like as savers should Bobby’s Kitten not fire. I could not argue with anyone else who has just a strong opinion on a different horse. As a reminder, these are two year olds still growing and learning so proceed with caution, one of the best races to watch and wager on all weekend.
Race 8 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
This race was added to the BC menu in 2007 and normally doesn’t draw a full field or as much glamour as its sister race on the turf on Saturday. Not the case this year with a full field and some headliners.
Contenders:
#12 Goldencents- After he returned to California from the Triple Crown trail, one noted trainer stated, “He’s working so good, there is no way he loses”. I can’t remember who said that, but he did end up losing and has lost all three of his most recent races but they were all solid 2nd place finishes and two of those to the late Pointsoffthebench who is a champion in his own right. He stretches back out to a mile and I don’t see him losing this time.
#11 Pants On Fire- Scored a professional win in the Ack Ack at Churchill in his last, seems to be getting better as he ages. He does have the ability to get a front seat and has worked lights out up to the race, a major player on all fronts.
#4 Brujo de Olleros- The pride of Uruguay had a slow beginning to his North American career, but has really blossomed in his last 2 running hard in the lane with Graydar who was a legit Classic threat before getting scratched from BC due to a quarter crack. Any step forward puts him right in the mix here.
Betability:
Solid field that is fairly evenly matched and I didn’t even mention the fastest horse in the race Verrazano who seems to not show up on big days (Derby & Travers only 2 career flops), Pletcher sees him sailing along on the front end. I really feel Goldencents is the key to the race as this is his home court and I would be shocked if he doesn’t hit the board, key around him.
Race 9 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf
Similar to the boy’s race, this is a deep and evenly matched race. However, the Euro’s haven’t had much success winning last year for the first time in the race’s existence. But, they do bring a strong hand this year for the repeat.
Contenders:
#6 Vorda- I have stated this for years, the European turf runners are that much better than the US contingent, we are closing the gap but in this age and sex class it appears they tower over us. This lass has been well supported in Europe with ascending Timeform figures, the only possible question mark is she hasn’t been 8 furlongs, but I don’t see that as a problem, gets the nod in a deep contentious field.
#2 Al Thakhira- I love foreign invaders like this, lightly raced, minimal money on her card and ranks the lesser of the imports, but that is at first glance. Digging deeper you see an improving filly winning by open lengths with some pedigree with a natural stretch out pattern, lots of upside.
#10 Clenor- This filly proves my point as she was super ordinary in Europe in 3 tries then crosses the pond and can’t be beat. Maybe she has just grown up here? She does have the home court advantage and that is a bigger factor then most acknowledge, still can’t see her getting unsaddled in the circle, prefer to try to beat.
Betability:
I do like the Euro runners but there is always that uncertainty of how they will react to the ship and although I list some I like, there are others I like as well. The North American horse that has me interested is Ready to Act who was a clear winner in Canada before taking an abrupt left turn and injuring Maragh just before the wire. She screams a player if she minds her manners. Certainly a race where many scenarios could unfold, pick your own poison.
Race 10 Breeders’ Cup Distaff
I could easily argue that this race has been more fantastic than the Classic as there have been some amazingly matched races every year where you can’t wait to see the outcome. This year is no different from a fan prospective as you have the two time champ Royal Delta, The now filly Princess of Sylmar and 4 others that are no slouches. From a betting prospective though, the short field won’t yield much value.
Contenders:
#6 Princess of Sylmar- Pennsylvania bred broke her maiden a little over a year ago at Penn National Racecourse, since then has only been beaten once. Wasn’t even supposed to run here having needed to be supplemented to take on the two-time champ Royal Delta, Three year olds running style is to come from off the pace which will be going against the typical speed bias here. So why is she here? I am guessing to take the passing of the torch.
#4 Royal Delta- Two-time defending champ is probably not at her peak but she still is a serious foe to reckon with. The field she beat last year is much tougher then this and she went out and took it right to them. Her recent defeat to my top pick will only juice the price for her loyal backers. A win ironically would duplicate her 2012 campaign, the queen until dethroned.
#5 Beholder- Local heroines lost to the Princess by a half-length out east, now tries to even the score on her home turf. She is the speed of the speed and gets Yoda (200 year old Stevens) to pilot her for what her camp hopes to be three in a row. Don’t ignore as she might be the third choice when they go to the gate but could easily get away.
Betability:
This is a fan’s race as any of my top three picks could win. Street Girl is a pitch and the other two runners although amazing gals in their own right, might be just a step below the top three. I guess if you want to find fair value I would use these prices as a baseline and maybe play the biggest overlay if one exists. Beholder 7/2, Princess of Sylmar 2/1, Royal Delta 8/5.
Saturday
Race 4 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly
All the two year old races bring the same excitement which starts with big fields, but this one only draws in 10. The turf juveniles for both sexes have produced some nice prices, but the main track hasn’t yielded the same rewards as the last 11 juvenile filly editions where the longest price was 7 to 1.
Contenders:
#1 Artemis Agrotera- In the last 11 years, only one winner paid double digits (She Be Wild 2009 $16.80) & in the 29 years raced, 17 favorites have won. If that isn’t a precursor for a formful running, not sure what is. This gal’s breeding says she should run into the night and if she takes even another small step forward then she has to be the book favorite for the Oaks, looks like the real deal.
#10 She’s a Tiger- First off I love the name, but how can’t you like a speedball keeps on going. She has lived up to her name in the AM working like she hasn’t already ran 5 times. This track can play very speed favoring and if it is ultra-fast, she just might not get caught, pace player.
#9 Sweet Reason- Trainer Gyarmati’s first Grade I winner, this filly loved the slop in New York and also proved she can run on a dry track. Should rain Gods decide to drop some precipitation, you can flip flop her with my top pick unfortunately forecast in sunny and zero chance of rain.
Betability:
As mentioned, this race looks like it should run to the program, there are a couple of others that wouldn’t shock me if they won as well, but my top pick should be very tough to beat, not worth spreading more than 5 horses deep.
Race 5 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
A nice solid group of Distaff turfers from both this side and the other side of the pond, but not as strong of a group as in year’s past. The Americans have fared very well as they have won 9 of the 14 editions.
Contenders:
#2 Romantica- I see a lot of Group races in her past performances and she shows two wins this season on her resume. Her mama (Banks Hill) actually won this very race in 2000 @ Belmont Park for same conditioner. She does show 2 wins & 2 seconds on firm turf so she should like the Santa Anita sod, the class of the race and if she fires they are running for 2nd place.
#1 Dank- I sometimes catch flak from local fans and handicappers because I tend to back Euro turf runners, but this gal optimizes my thoughts. In Europe, she was stead solid mare, but she ships to the US and on the Million undercard wins going away with a 107 speed figure. Yes they are still a notch above on that side of the Atlantic.
#4 Alterite- Once a horse moves continents and makes her third start for a US based trainer, we claim her as our own. She might be the best chance for Americans to go 4 in a row in this race. I really like how Brown develops horses and I have also been a fan of him 3rd start of the cycle. No disgrace in losing the prep as she got out jumped, won’t happen again.
Betability:
Excellent as I didn’t even mention Marketing Mix, the local hope that ran a game 2nd in here last year and always seems to fire. Ramsey’s also have a homebred in here (Kitten’s Dumplings) who you can’t dismiss as everything they send to the gate seems to win, then there is Goldberg’s Laughing who has went out and got every call in her last 3 wins. Nice race to get creative with your tickets.
Race 6 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
A nice race with a good story, a former champ, and some new faces looking to make their own history. Typically, a race that runs to form, but with various pace scenarios could easily see a meltdown.
Contenders:
#8 Dance to Bristol- Proof that from humble beginnings can come great horses, Charlestown / Laurel based mare has only missed the exacta once in her career and a 5th place finish or better makes her a millionaires. Rider Xman has said she is the best horse he has ever ridden. Ollie Figgins is not a household name in the main stream, but take this advice from a Mid-Atlantic horse owner; he knows what he is doing. Defeat in last insures a solid price.
#12 Sweet Lulu- Won the Test in NY going this distance and that was a tough field, no disgrace in getting beat by Close Hatches going long. Hollendorfer is 25% on the cut back in distance and this is a legit filly going any trip, logical player.
#11 Groupie Doll- What a difference a year makes, looks like that Cigar mile against Stay Thirsty took the starch right out of her and it hasn’t returned yet. She is headed for the sale after this and I view that as a negative, but her morning drills have shown some zip so maybe she is recapturing some of her form which would make her an obvious player, hard to gauge.
Betability:
With plots and subplots, a lot of different results could occur. I really think Dance to Bristol is the key to the race and if she doesn’t win, I think she will hit the board so I will be building tickets around her. I couldn’t argue with anyone backing someone else in fact for the dart tossers Great Hot will be 50 to 1and the whisper is couldn’t be training any better, worth a small wager.
Race 7 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Simply put, the best betting race on the card as 14 horses going 6 ½ furlongs down the unique downhill course equal value value value. In the 3 running’s over this course, the super has paid 4K, 8K, & 29K and that is with favorites running on the ticket or even winning.
Contenders:
#4 Reneesgotzip- If you going to play a horse in this race, you have to play someone who has experience over this course. Last year, she ran a very game 3rd off two decent preps. This year she comes into this off two eye popping preps. I will admit I don’t like playing girls against boys normally unless they are named Zenyatta but in this deep field her forward placing might avoid traffic and trouble.
#5 Caracortado – If not enough reaching with a filly, I am asking this guy to perform like Da Hoss who won the mile off a long layoff and 1 prep. Ran very well in his comeback race and figures to be a lot tighter for this, has 2 wins in 5 starts down the hill.
#14 Unbridled’s Note- 3rd in the Eddie D after winning it in 2012, but you can forgive that loss as it was his first race in 5 months. Never off the board in 4 downhill turf attempts and that includes 2 outside draws like today, I think that streak will continue.
Betability:
A race that could yield any type of result but absolutely fun to watch and wager on as if I was the in-house analyst, I could easily find a nice thing to say about each horse and the chance he/she has. There are some solid closers in here that didn’t crack my top three and the defending champ is a perfect 6 for 6 over the course but I must play against her as she hasn’t been out in 4 months after an out of town defeat looking vulnerable.
Race 8 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
A nice mix of 14 freshmen runners which won’t necessarily produce a Derby runner, but will certainly begin the discussion; similar to the main track filly version, this race typically runs to form and favorites have fared very well. (11 of 29 winning favorites)
Contenders:
#5 Bond Holder- Interesting that he couldn’t break his maiden until he tried a graded stakes on the main track, looks like he is screaming for more land; he will need to improve to beat this group and I am likely reaching as his running style likely puts his ceiling as a slice.
#13 Havana- Speed figures say he is the horse to beat and his conditioner is shooting 32% with all his 2 year olds, stretches out another 1/16 but the pedigree is there, very hard to play against.
#6 Tap It Rich- Won very professional in his first career start and Baffert is batting 26% for the encore race. Connections paid 500K for this grey fella; he could easily score here with a step forward.
Betability:
Havana is the horse to beat and will likely be a short price, I will be honest I don’t really have a good read on the rest of this field and sometimes when that happens it bombs out, still I am in the camp that the logical contenders is where your winner will come from.
Race 9 Breeders’ Cup Turf
This race is a shadow of itself as we used to get Arc runners, top tier Euro’s, & a culmination of North America’s best. It also used to be carded right before the Classic and now that spot is reserved for the Turf Mile. The headliner is The Fugue who sports just shy of a million on the season.
Contenders:
#8 Point of Entry- His only loss in 20 months came last year in this race. I know he comes into this with more questions than answers since he is coming off a minor injury, but he has fired off the bench before. Winning this would vindicate Shug for Orb’s post Derby demise. If he comes out running, the one they will have to deny.
#11 Magician- Adds lasix after his Ascot debacle where I am guessing he might have bled. His other two spins were excellent this season, reunites with Moore who won by daylight only time he rode him, won’t get as much respect as The Fugue but equally talented.
#7 The Fugue- Likely post time favorite and deservedly so as Gal recently beat the boys in a Group 1 race in Ireland, but she only beat 5 runners that day and her other 2 attempts against males were failures. Well bred and well conditioned, but the type of horse that is easy to try to beat, after all she couldn’t beat fillies in last year’s Filly & Mare Turf.
Betability:
Good race to bet, but as mentioned the Euro’s seem to bring a softer bunch each season when they basically used to bully the US contingent. Ramsey was very high on Real Solution in the Million so if you are looking for another horse, he might be the one.
Race 10 Breeders’ Cup Sprint
The assumed prohibitive favorite Points Offthebench broke down in his last training mile last Saturday which opens the door for someone to step up. Trainer Yakteen deserves some high accolades for what a great job he did conditioning him, RIP my friend.
Contenders:
#9 Sweet Circle- The inaugural winner of the now defunct BC Juvenile Sprint has never been worse than 2nd in 8 career spins. How versatile is this guy, he can sprint and he can route. He got hurt on the 12’ Derby trail missing 16 months and came back running scoring in 1:07:98 three weeks ago. Baffert has had some solid success in this race, I expect him to be a major player.
#7 Private Zone- This guy likes the front and can really blaze from the gate, always seems to win the battle but lose the war as noted by his 3 starts and 3 seconds over the main track. Former Jockey Rene Douglas owns a piece of this guy and it would certainly be neat if he could go down the road and get every pole, like Douglas he is a fighter.
#5 Sum of the Parts- A quick history lesson, who cut the fractions in last year’s sprint and held on to only get beat by 4 lengths? The answer is this guy. Unfortunately, he is another who wants the lead and that figures to be a crowded spot, but he should be 30 to 1 and sometimes the one who gets the jump, might keep going, a price stab.
Betability:
I really like Secret Circle and the fact he doesn’t need the lead to win, I think this race will just fall right in his lap. Possibly a speed horse could get clear but with the calvary charge I expect, hard to envision the proper breather to get a wire to wire winner.
Race 11 Breeders’ Cup Mile
Hard to believe that 9 others did not get scared off from Wise Dan, the defending champ who hasn’t lost a race on the Turf in 2 years!! I will say this with the utmost respect for all the horses in the Classic; this is the best Breeders Cup assembled field.
Contenders:
#8 Wise Dan- A fellow handicapper asked me to evaluate his last race and after watching the replay 10 times, my explanation was, he simply got outrun. A backer could argue it was the course or he was pushed wide, but Silver Max ran a solid race. Now, he faces an even deeper and bulkier field then he did last year. IMO if he wins this race he deserves HOY. The loss in last will only juice the price, the choice until beat on sod.
#5 Olympic Glory- Last year’s top Euro miler got grass kicked in his face and if the A game Wise Dan shows up, this will be the 2nd victim. But, unlike last year, Dan looks mortal so maybe the gang of Euro’s that are trying him have a shot; he is the cream of that crop.
#7 He Be Fire N Ice – Cal bred has improved each start and has the advantage of this being his home turf, not sure he is in the same class as his foes, but he is going the right direction and his running style might allow for that stalk and pop effort to land a slice.
Betability:
Absolute best betting race on the card, local mile champ Obviously goes one way, to the lead and rips off fractions and his last two races have been his worst two of his career so I think he sets the race up for a stalk and popper and that’s exactly what the Euro’s & Wise Dan want so this could be a race for the ages in the lane. The deep field insures you get 3 to 2 on Dan so if you are a chalk eater the price will be right. If you are a non-believer, the rest should be priced fairly as well, batter up, this is what we wait all year for.
Race 12 Breeders’ Cup Classic
The feature event got a nice group of aged and accomplished three year olds. I think it is a stronger field then last year and the headliner Game on Dude was 7/5 against that group. Fast forward a year and he looks better and stronger plus the strategy is simple, send and see how far he can go.
Contenders:
#8 Palace Malice- Three year olds haven’t had much success in this race so that is his first knock, but he has progressively gotten better and I think he is going to be one helluva 4 year old, but before he gets there he lands here and is a sneaky play. His last @ Belmont was sneaky good as he ran the middle 4 panels in 46 and when asked ran by the leaders and had “The Greek” not got a perfect rail skimming trip, he would have won, seems to get the local 2nd tier trip behind the blazers and if he sustains his run on the bend, he will get his number posted on the board.
#6 Mucho Macho Man- His two best career races have come over the dirt here @ Santa Anita and similar to my top pick has that fighter mentality where he stays on even if he doesn’t win it so a logical contender to be in a similar stalking spot as Palace Malice, certainly would cap a George Foreman comeback year for Stevens winning the title.
#9 Game on Dude- He’s 7 for 8 over the main track here with his only loss in last year’s Classic where he got away poorly. My gut says he will get to the front though it won’t be easy and I think he might even rip off fractions. If you remember Smith’s ride on Royal Delta last year, she was in against some major speed and ended up loose on the lead and crushed a good group. I expect similar tactics, clearly the one to beat and if able to get the breather will be long gone. 2 to 1 would be an amazing value play.
Betability:
Great race as with so much speed signed on, some solid stalkers and even some talented deep closers, I gambler could go many ways. My focus will be on the stalkers but if the bias is the track is playing like a conveyor belt, “The Dude” or even Moreno could end up going a long way.
Good Luck and enjoy the greatest two days of racing on the Earth
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at TheEquineinvestor.com