Kentucky Derby-(Louisville, Kentucky) the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby is carded as race 11 this Saturday at Churchill Downs, approximate scheduled post time is 6:24PM. The field consists of 20 entrants who are vying to make history having their name forever etched in racing lore. The weather forecast is no precipitation Saturday with very mild temperatures, should be ideal track conditions.
The most prestigious race in North America is also the only race bettors get 20 wagering interests here in the states; most sporting events have their signature event at the end of the season, but NASCAR and horse racing use their season kick-off as their big event. As horse racing continues to die a slow death, even the casual fan still knows the greatest two minutes in sports. Truth be said, most 3 year olds have either just mathematically turned 3 as most are foaled between Feb-May (all horses birthdates are considered Jan 1st) and with the lighter racing schedules are immature or don’t have enough of a foundation to win the Derby. Last year’s Breeder’s Cup Classic 1-2 finishers are perfect case in point. Will Take Charge & Mucho Macho Man had a thrilling Classic finish and arguably are two of the best thoroughbreds in the handicap division in training; they also both failed in the Kentucky Derby.
Mucho Macho Man ran in the 2011 Derby and finished a game 3rd, he was actually my selection as I loved his running style, but even trainer Rivito admitted before the race she wasn’t sure he was mature enough to win the Derby (he was born June 15th). In fact, it took him until his 4 year old season to blossom and show really how good he is. He did race in all three legs of the Triple Crown and his best finish was his 3rd in the Derby, but as he grew and matured, he has proved to be one of the greatest Thoroughbreds to ever race.
Will Take Charge ran in the 2013 Derby a troubled 8th, he was actually moving as good as the winner Orb until he got shut down by a fading Verrazano who stopped his momentum. Like Mucho Macho Man, this guy raced in all three legs of the Triple Crown as well but only managed a 7th in the Preakness as his best finish. This colt is huge, standing over 17 hands high, he didn’t get his feet under him until late summer at Saratoga and since then hasn’t been worse than 2nd and I feel currently is the best aged handicap runner in North America.
I prefaced the above because every year the Derby is a puzzle which we try to piece together through various angles, past performances, workouts, and buzz. The best horse of his generation doesn’t always win this race. In fact, I would say in the last 20 years only 5 Derby winners were the cream of their crop.
The 2014 puzzle has even more missing pieces than in previous years, for the first time ever Churchill Downs presented a future Derby betting pool in the crops 2 year old season (November 30, 2013). At that time, the most brilliant minds in racing came up with the 23 best future book contenders. As of print, only 1 horse remains, Ride on Curlin. Injuries are part off all sports and horse racing hasn’t been spared, but some of these runners have also just not progressed as expected.
The Derby preps have also been very lackluster outside of stand-out California Chrome who has dominated in all of his preps and looks to challenge as the shortest priced favorite in the modern era (since 2001) when the wagering menu was expanded to 20 betting interests. Normally there is a strong showdown of horses that have excelled at different regions that clash in Louisville, but I am just not that excited about the New York, Florida, or Arkansas based runners.
As I sit at my kitchen table and have all the pieces to this 2014 Derby, this is what I see to separate pretenders from contenders:
Let’s start eliminating and identifying pretenders,
The Apollo jinx is alive and well, No horse has won the Derby without racing at two since 1882 (Apollo). If you like angles, history has that angle on your side. Hoppertunity didn’t start at two and accordingly can be dismissed from the top spot although I would include in underneath gimmicks.
Since 1980, 30 of the 34 Derby winners were out a winning dam. That is 90% and here is a list of prominent starters who are NOT out of a race winning dam: Intense Holiday, Uncle Sigh, Vinceremos, & Harry’s Holiday. I don’t like any of these runners, not even sure if any of these are horses to consider in the exacta.
A new angle that I came up with is the Ken Ramsey angle, Mr. Ramsey has made no bones about it, he wants to win the Derby and will do so at any and all cost. I am convinced had Bobby’s Kitten won the Bluegrass, he would be in the starting gate as well so basically this angle is he will run a horse in the Derby that qualifies regardless if the surface suits him or even if the horse belongs. His two runners are Vicar’s in Trouble & We Miss Artie, both of these are actually nice horses but We Miss Artie’s future is on the infield and shouldn’t be in the race at all. Vicar’s in Trouble actually had a very nice win in the Louisiana Derby but is a diminutive horse that won’t stand up to the rigors of a 20 horse field and I feel he was all out in the LA Derby just to get in here and will bounce. I could include him underneath, but not a horse for top honors as I am not sure the racing Gods want controversial owner Ramsey to get a blanket of roses.
Since 1999, 16 of the last 18 Derby winners finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep; the other 2 were Mine That Bird & Giacomo (2 of the 3 longest prices ever) who both finished 4th in their final preps both lighting up the board and paying over $100 to win.
Three hurdles all 20 entrants must overcome: First time racing in a 20 horse bulky field, first time going a mile and a quarter, and carrying 126 lbs for the first time in their careers. To win the Derby, you have to have the horsepower, have your horse peaking, be in the right spot, but most importantly got to be lucky.
After eliminating the ones above, 9 are left and I can’t endorse Chitu who hasn’t worked very well and does have a foot problem going on. Additionally, I don’t think Ride On Curlin is a win candidate although his last two have showed some guts, so I wouldn’t completely dismiss as he could factor in bottom of exotics.
7 contenders remain
Before I even started typing this article, my mind said this is the year for some spice so I started pouring over replays, past performances, pedigrees and angles looking for that special upset, but no matter how hard I reach I still can’t get past California Chrome. With that said, I do still believe an upset could exist especially with the recent release of 50 to 1 (Mine that Bird story) and for some extra nostalgia I am sitting in the same seats I had in 2009 when Mine That Bird won and I caught the trifecta with my gambling buddy Meadows John.
To add extra sentiments, I am taking my long-time buddy Tim Dempsey back to the hallowed grounds at Churchill; we last attended together in 1999 when 30 to 1 Charismatic won.
My gut says I think it’s time to go shopping, but my mind says…….
Contenders:
#5 California Chrome– The only time I saw him in person was Breeders Cup weekend in 2013 where he hopped at the start and still rallied gamely to only lose by a few lengths against a very speed favoring strip. Since then he jumped from state bred competition to open ranks and has flourished winning going away in every start. I like how he gets in the bridle early but yet can rate off the speed and when asked for run accelerates very gamely. At this point, he is clearly the most talented horse, the fastest horse, and should be sitting right off the leaders which tends to be the ideal stalking spot in the Derby. He also is the only horse in the field to dominate his preps entering this on a 4 race winning streak, no other contender has even has a 2 win streak. Despite all the positive factors and even the racing Gods possibly rewarding long-time trainer Sherman who is one of the good guys in racing, there still are some negative factors to consider. He hasn’t been out of California, won’t train over the surface, has gotten off poorly a few times at the gate, tons of speed drew around him, and will be obliterated at the windows, all factors that point to try to play against. Owner Coburn has pulled a Namath guaranteeing victory, I won’t go that far but I will tell you in a process of elimination, he will be very hard to beat.
#10 Wildcat Red– Really wanted to pick this guy on top, but like all my picks from here down, there is a major flaw or two in each of them that just prevents me from looking past. His Florida Derby & Fountain of Youth were both amazing, but they might be more of a horse for course as his work here early in the week was very lackluster. He has already outrun his pedigree, but asking to go 10 furlongs with so much other speed signed on likely will be his unraveling. Still, he sports a game 7 for 7 in the exacta for his career and even though he worked pedestrian over the track after his work he ran into an Oaks horse training and latched back on to go again. No doubt he is like Rocky Balboa and can take a punch, just see Apollo Creed winning the war in the end. Should send and see how far he can go, I still think he will stay for a slice on guts alone.
#12 Dance With Fate– His last race in the Blue Grass was visually impressive as he sat near the back of the pack, moved in tandem with Medal Count and opened up daylight at the wire, the pedigree also has a dosage index of 1.91 and a center of distribution of .63 which screams the distance won’t be a problem, add in the fact he is 1of the 3 dual qualifiers in the field (Tapiture & We Miss Artie). Back up the truck to bet right? Not so fast, after his Blue Grass win, trainer Eurton didn’t gush about the Derby and in so many words said this horse is better on synthetic or turf surfaces having not liked the dirt kickback in his only 2 main track starts, keep in mind Eurton used to be a jockey. I think the connections decided to run more based on the competition and they are going to roll the dice the kickback doesn’t thwart him as much as it may have done in the past. I really like they gave him almost 60 days between El Camino Derby & Bluegrass and he seemed to return a thicker more mature horse. Owner was recently interviewed and said he’s maturing quickly. If he can find a clear path beating the surface question, he is a major player and my wise guy horse.
#4 Danza– Ran a big fig @ Oaklawn although it was a perfect ground saving trip at balloon odds, really wanted to put him on top but the old adage if you missed the wedding don’t show up for the funeral applies here as he was 40 to 1 in an 8 horse field and now will be a third that or less in a 20 horse field. Still his first start beyond 7 furlongs was a winning one also being flattered by Bayern’s very strong showing in the Derby Trail. I watched all his replays and he seems still green but does continue to run on in the lane which is very much needed in the Derby, connections have also been very high on him and maybe he’s starting to blossom, pedigree suggests he should be ok to go the distance, final work was spectacular. Jersey Joe Bravo is one of those riders that deserve a win on this stage, can be a player.
Selections: 5-10-12-4
Betability: great betting race because after you get past the favorite, I think no matter who you like they will be the right price, still I wouldn’t bet a horse just to bet him, make sure he reaches value on your own line or even using mine. I do like the chalk mainly because I think he is in his own class, but rider has stated he lets him just run and in this kind of race he will need to coach him a bit more and off a step slow could make him a non-factor so I wouldn’t be shocked if the result is a head scratcher. The track should be in great shape as little to know rain was expected in the days leading up to the race. Should you get married to the chalk, have an imagination underneath as I think no matter the result; it won’t be a popular one, batter up
Suggested Wagers:
12 & 4 to Win & Place for 1 unit
5 & 12 wheeled first and second in Exacta’s with All (except the 1,2,3,7,9) for 1 unit
Trifecta Wheel ($273 for .50 cent) 4,5,12 / 4,5,6,8,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20 / 4,5,6,8,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20
Superfecta Wheel for 1 unit 5,12 / 4,5,6,10,11,12,14 / 4,5,6,8,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20 / 10,14,17 ($432 a unit)
Saver bet: 1 unit WPS #14
Should you be interested in the Oaks on Friday, it is a 13 horse field with a stand-out in the #13 Untapable who is programmed at 4/5. Most pundits think that is free money and with the large pools she likely won’t go below 3/5 which means free money on her nose or a free square in multi race wagering.
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#5 California Chrome – 5 to 2, likely to be way over bet, but has a very legitimate chance to get unsaddled in the infield, the one they will have to beat.
#10 Wildcat Red- 25 to 1, pride of Florida was only a $30K OBS sale purchase, has already returned her owners 20 fold that, has a pace player’s chance but likely a slice is what he’ll get.
#12 Dance With Fate- 12 to 1, how he handles the surface is the only variable, like the direction he is going and worth a stab on talent and pedigree alone.
#4 Danza- 20 to 1, if you missed the wedding, then you might want to pass in case this is the funeral, I do think this April foal will be even better later in the year, needs to grow up fast.
#14 Medal Count- 22 to 1, will be making his 3rd start in less than 30 days and similar to Dance With Fate, his 2 worst races were on dirt, a major player if takes to the main track at Churchill.
#20 Wicked Strong- 20 to 1, his last was his best but it did come on a closing bias track and he figures to be at or near the rear in here, draw wasn’t good to him, one of the deep closers with a big chance.
#11 Hoppertunity- 24 to 1, has progressed nicely since his maiden bow and this will be his 6th career start after not starting a 2, the Apollo jinx will be tough to beat but I bet he sneaks into exotics.
#16 Intense Holiday- 30 to 1, always seems to show up, but not sure he is a win type horse, will make some noise but ceiling is likely a minor award, loses Smith to Hoppertunity.
#8 General A Rod – 30 to 1, hasn’t been off the board in his career, but does enter this off two straight efforts where he couldn’t pass Wildcat Red, recently sold which I see as a bad sign.
#6 Samraat- 35 to 1, NY Bred dominated state breds and has held his own against open company, but needed the entire stretch to save 2nd in the Wood, jumping in deep end of the pool.
#19 Ride on Curlin- 25 to 1, last 2 showed some guts but I do feel he is a notch below in here, Borel knows his way to the winner’s circle, not completely out of the question.
#13 Chitu- 40 to 1, strictly looking at the running lines, no reason to think he shouldn’t be good in here, but a minor foot problem and marginal works show he’s not a 100% and that won’t work in here.
#15 Tapiture- 45 to 1, seems to have went downhill ever since the Assmussen stable came under fire by PETA, looks like he is going the wrong direction, would need a major form reversal to contend.
#17 Commanding Curve- 50 to 1, on paper looks similar to Stewart’s runner last year who ran a surprising 2nd, distance won’t be a problem, but he will be coming from the clouds, this post has never won the Derby.
#18 Candy Boy- 45 to 1, I might have this guy rated too low, but I was very disappointed in his SA Derby, HOF Stevens did win the Preakness last year and knows how to win the Derby.
#1 Vicar’s in Trouble- 25 to 1, hard to have a horse rated this low after such an impressive score in last, the draw makes him one dimensional and I didn’t see that working, a play against.
#3 Uncle Sigh- 75 to 1, has been the Alydar to Samraat losing last 3 straight decisions to him, rider bailed on him as well, would need a perfect trip just to get a slice of the pie.
#9 Vinceremos- 100 to 1, ran dead last 3 weeks ago in his last prep the Bluegrass, connections are hoping there is a last minute venue change and the Derby will be run at Tampa Bay, not.
#2 Harry’s Holiday- 100 to 1, was claimed for 30K in his first career start, and does sport a 2-1-1 record at Churchill but against much lesser, workouts in morning leading up negative, a few cuts below against these.
#7 We Miss Artie- 250 to 1, a slow horse whose next start will be on turf, Velazquez bailed for a reason, shouldn’t be in the race.
This year’s Preakness should see some very intriguing new shooters, be sure to follow along with my on the Triple Crown trail as that publication will be out May 17 at as well as the Belmont Stakes on June 7th at www.equineinvestor.com
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com