Preakness Stakes-The 143rd running of the Preakness stakes is carded as race 13 this Saturday at Pimlico Racecourse, approximate scheduled post time is 6:48 PM. The field consists of 8 entrants who are vying for the 2nd Jewel of the Triple Crown with Justify continuing his quest for a Triple Crown bid. The weather forecast is projecting seasonal temperatures with massive amounts of rain leading up to and on race day, a yielding turf and sloppy main track are a given certainly not ideal.
Curses are meant to be broken, the most famous curse was the Curse of the Bambino that lasted from 1918 to 2004 when the Red Sox’s finally won the World Series, it took 86 years to overcome that. The Kentucky Derby Apollo Jinx took a 136 years to be conquered as Justify finally erased it this year.
The Derby was the “perfect storm” for Justify, the Louisville quagmire allowed Justify get an upfront stalking trip where he never got any mud kicked in his face while the others sloshed around in his wake.
Immediately after the Derby, Chad Brown (trainer of Good Magic) was quoted as saying, “not going to try that horse again” (speaking of Justify). He has since changed his mind but be glad he did as without Good Magic’s presence, wagering value was zero.
Last year, trainer Brown brought Cloud Computing into the Preakness off a lackluster Wood Memorial prep (he missed the Derby due to not qualifying) and he turned the tables on the 2017 Derby winner Always Dreaming getting a dream trip at a healthy $28 win ticket. Do you think lightning will strike twice for Brown? I don’t
Favorites fare very well in Baltimore, by the numbers:
The Preakness plays to speed. In the last 31 running’s, 19 of those 31 winners were sitting 1-4 at the first call.
Derby runners have come back to win the Preakness 40 of the last 48 editions.
The race’s history has had 72 favorites win in the 142 running’s, that is a 51% clip.
Only 4 of the last 31 races were won wire to wire
Since 1997, 10 of the past 21 Derby winners have doubled up in the Preakness; Furthermore, 14 of the last 21 Derby winners have been no worse than 2nd
Those stats certainly play to the popular choice Justify winning the 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown, not sure how anyone can pick against him. His running style will put him near the lead, he is already proven on a sloppy track (twice), the short field will let him get his way and even if the weather drastically changes he can run on fast track too.
My longtime trainer Matt Kintz told me a long time ago, “I’m not sure any horse really likes the slop, some just get over it better the others”. A statement that has proved oh so true. In the 2016 Preakness, proven off track specialist Exaggerator became the wise guy horse and pulled the upset on a sloppy track over Nyquist, the Derby winner. History proved that horse was strictly a wet track specialist as he raced 9 times in his 3-year-old season and won 3 races, all 3 were over a sloppy track.
With the perpetual storm cloud that has been over Baltimore all week, the track will likely be water logged by post-time and Justify like Exaggerator has proven that he gets over an off track very well. I am not sure even a hex could beat him.
Should you be wagering on Friday (which I strongly recommend), it is an absolute amazing card including numerous stakes. In race 5, I like Ms Locust Point (#4), this lass won the Barbara Fritchie down the road at Laurel in February over a muddy track, should be short priced popular choice. In race 7, I like Artistic Diva (#3) who is a perfect 2 for 2 in her career having already won on turf and dirt and has a 403 wet rating, she was a $425K 2-year-old in training purchase so the upside is there. Race 9, Pimlico Special, I like One Liner (#2) out of the Todd Pletcher barn to spring the mild upset, lightly raced 4-year-old appears to be trending to a huge effort, another solid wet track rating of 419. For Race 11 which is the featured Black Eyes Susan stakes, I like Red Ruby (#4) who is coming off a disappointing 4th place finish in the Honeybee which was a speed favoring event where she was 10 lengths back at the half and couldn’t get involved as the 4/5 favorite, she is 1 for 1 on off tracks, my choice.
Onto Saturday undercard: Race 8, I like Curly’s Rocket (#7) who won his 3-year-old bow over an off track very professionally, enters 1st stakes try so the price should be juicy.
Outside of the weather, kudos to Pimlico for putting together two stellar cards, let’s hope the weather changes course
Contenders:
#7 Justify– A perfect 4 for 4 and those include decisions against the top two rated horses coming into the season. Proven on off tracks it might even move him up, gets a nice cozy outside slot to sit right off the speed or simply just take it to them. He scared most off as this is the shortest field to go post ward in ages. If you are looking for holes, u might be better served going to a donut shop. I guess if you are a conspiracy theorist he could get stepped on going out of the gate, I guess sinkhole could open on the track and swallow him, maybe since rider Smith is currently under suspension but allowed to ride in stakes might be rusty. If the rider doesn’t fall off, I am certain he will reward his owners with the Woodlawn Vase in the infield winner’s circle, no surprises here.
#5 Good Magic– Ran a very respectable 2nd in the Derby having done nothing wrong in his 6-start career to this point. Fetched a Million bucks as a yearling with an all-star trainer and rider in his corner. Thankfully he entered this race as had he not this would have been a Mike Tyson fight in his prime with a bunch of punching bag spar partners, but Buster Douglas did find a way to stop Mike, so I guess this guy has a chance to turn the tables. The other “red” in the race but appears to be possibly born in the wrong year as same track surface as Derby day will yield same result Preakness day, but he gets $300K for being 2nd.
#1 Quip- Actually wanted to see this guy in the Derby as I thought his Tampa Derby was impressive. Unfortunately, that race turned out to be a dud as you needed a search warrant to find those runners in the Derby stretch. Former Mott assistant conditioner is starting to make a name for himself and Flo can find his way around a track, has a legit chance to get his number hung on the board and the 35 days of rest is ideal for this, the wise guy runner of this field.
#6 Tenfold- New shooter is making only his 3rd career start but has ascending Beyer’s including 2 wins. Owner’s just retired Gun Runner who was the top handicap horse of 2017 & early 2018 so they are looking for their next one. His dad, Curlin won this race 11 years ago so there are some intangibles in his corner, he might have the most upside of the others so wouldn’t be surprised if he runs a big one.
Selections: 7-5-1-6
Betability: Average, traditionally a very chalky race and this year appears to be the rule not the exception. All factors point to Justify being a very popular winner. With Good Magic in the race the betting is going to get a little more spread out so 1/2 or 2/5 seems to be about the best you will get on Justify’s nose, could be value, take it.
Suggested Wagers:
20 unit Win bet #7
1 unit Trifecta wheel #7 with #1, #2, #5, #6 with #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, #7, #8
1 unit Superfecta wheel #7 with #1, #2, #5, #6 with ALL with #1, #2, #6
1 unit Superfecta wheel #7 with #1, #2, #5, #9, #10 with #1, #2, #6 with ALL
5 unit Exacta #7 with #1,#5, #6
10 unit Exacta #7 with #5
No saver bet
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#7 Justify- 2 to 5, After Derby day I thought he has a chance to go off 1 to 9, not the case anymore with Good Magic slated to go to the gate so take what you can get.
#5 Good Magic 7 to 2, A lot of conspiracy theorists will give him a try, will need a malfunction in race to make those dreams come true.
#1 Quip – 15 to 1, I really like this horse overall, but he appears a notch below although would not be shocked if he finished in the Exacta.
#6 Tenfold- 25 to 1, His dad won this race and he is improving, but is ambitiously spotted for this event, upside is there but will it show today, we will find out.
#2 Lone Sailor- 25 to 1, I really thought he was one of the horses who would find his way into the exotics on Derby day, but he finished a lackluster 8th, Graham loses mount so mixed signals.
#8 Bravazo- 35 to 1, ranged up to 4th and flattened out to be 6th, but that was major better the most though including yours truly, the Coach sends two to the gate, his better shot.
#3 Sporting Chance- 50 to 1, Looks distanced challenged but Coach looks to run in the spotlight so entered strictly to run, will find a better spot next out.
#4 Diamond King- 100 to 1, Tesio winner got a free pass to get in the gate, but just doesn’t look fast enough, does pickup Castellano so if you are a jock better that is your only endorsement.
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com