Belmont Stakes-The 150th running of Belmont stakes is carded as race 11 this Saturday at Belmont Park in Elmont, NY, approximate scheduled post time is 6:46 PM. The field consists of 10 entrants who are vying for the 3rd Jewel of the Triple Crown. The weather forecast has mild temps with little to no precipitation so unlike Louisville & Baltimore, weather should be no factor.
This is like Déjà vu from 2015, Bob Baffert and another legit chance of winning a Triple Crown.
“Big Sandy” which is know as the Belmont main track can be a little tricky, not all horses get over it so if you’re playing the undercard, give an extra boost to runners who have already had success over it. Sure, Justify has a lot to overcome: new track, 4 races in last 60 days, and 9 foes who would love to derail the champ.
From 1978 to 2015 it seemed like the new era of racing would never crown a Triple Crown champ, but American Pharoah accomplished that with a front end well rated cruising speed which left the rest in his wake. I mention that because if Justify wins, it will be off the same trip as the rail draw forces his hand to go from the start.
The Preakness showed some vulnerability for Justify as he was getting some serious pressure late in the race, two ways you can look at that 1> like California Chrome and many others before him, 3 races in 5 weeks is just too grueling and time to figure out who will beat him 2> he’s special and the price just got better, this is what I think…..
Contenders:
#1 Justify– If I asked a trivia question, who won the 2017 Football Season National Championship, 99% of the people would say Alabama, but a small contingent of folks (me included) would say the University of Central Florida Knights, why? Because they were undefeated and even played Auburn in a bowl game as a double-digit underdog and won by 7. Unbeaten but not untested and there is an old adage you can’t play against them until they lose so like UCF Justify brings his perfect 5 for 5 record to a race devoid of early speed, sure someone will go, like Noble Indy, but when the dust settles at the finish line, find it hard to be anyone but him and let’s just assume he brought his B game to Baltimore and the 3 weeks off has him ready to roll, history should have lucky number 13 Triple Crown winner.
#7 Tenfold–I loved his Preakness as he looked like 2nd was his before Bravazo rallied to nip him in final strides but he took a big step fwd and I think he will improve off that race, Beyer’s are ascending, and he has enough early foot to sit right behind the leaders, would not shock me if he found a way to win this, but I think minor spoils is about where he will land.
#3 Bravazo– Not sure how many good ones the Coach is going to have before he rides off into the sunset, but this overachiever just won’t go away, 6th in Derby, 2nd in Preakness and most thing he is the main threat, I think the magic slipper could fall off here finally, but even though I will play against him, I find it hard to pick against him.
#8 Vino Rosso-NY connections from top to bottom would love to win this race and if anyone can spring an upset it would be Uncle Todd who knows how to get one ready. My retort would be Pletcher puts them where they belong and if you look through the PP’s he took the B route to the Derby, so he is likely a B teamer who would need the race of his life to win.
Selections: 1-7-3-8
Betability: Great as the action should be all over the place, the Preakness nail biter ensures a 3/5 price or better on Justify and each contender will bring his own loyal backers to the windows, a see a great betting race whether you are playing for or against history.
Suggested Wagers:
3 Unit Trifecta Wheel #1 with ALL with #4, #7, #8
5 Unit Exacta Wheel #1 with #4, #7, #8
1 Unit Superfecta Wheel #1 with ALL with ALL with #4, #7, #8
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#1 Justify- 3 to 5, Money Mike & Uncle Bob Baffert, lethal combination, deserved heavy favorite
#7 Tenfold- 7 to 1, Improving, certainly could make a name for himself as the season progresses
#3 Bravazo- 9 to 1, Likely way over bet as he’s coming off a big effort in Preakness, could regress
#8 Vino Rosso- 12 to 1, I could have put a kid through college on all the money I lost on this horse prep season, TAP, chance
#4 Hofburg- 10 to 1, Most folks wise guy horse, troubled Derby trip, plenty of time to be ready, a threat for sure
#10 Blended Citizen – 15 to 1, Peter Pan winners usually burn money in this spot, although Tonalist proved that wrong a few years ago, I think he’ll clunk up and get a minor slice
#9 Noble Indy- 30 to 1, If you are a trip handicapper this is your horse as he is only other speed in race, to me he won’t be around when real running begins, your call.
#6 Gronkowski- 50-1, yes 1st time Chad Brown, yes Jose Ortiz, that’s where the party ends, if exchange betting were legal in PA I would lay this horse, pass.
#5 Restoring Hope- 75 to 1, I still don’t understand this entry, but I guess 8 of them could get stuck in the gate, major reach.
#2 Free Drop Billy-100 to 1, closer has been working well, but he was before the Derby where he got badly outrun, not fast enough period.
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com