Preakness Stakes-The 144th running of the Preakness stakes is carded as race 13 this Saturday at Pimlico Racecourse, approximate scheduled post time is 6:48 PM. The field consists of 13 entrants who are vying for the 2nd Jewel of the Triple Crown with no Triple Crown bid due to the controversial Derby result. The weather forecast has been dry leading up to the weekend and will remain that way with ideal temps, simply put perfect weather.
Ok so what the Puck happened in the Derby? To quote a famous line from the movie A Few Good Men, “I want the truth!”, to which Col. Jessep responded, “you can’t handle the truth”.
If you don’t want the truth then I kindly ask you to quit reading, you have been warned. The following will not be politically correct and sugar coated. It will be an unbiased view of the facts, uncensored. Again, if that isn’t what you want to then simply close your browser.
If you stayed, let’s recap the Derby. A bulky field of 19 horses went post ward with the 2nd choice, Maximum Security running the race of his life with a wire to wire score pulling away in the end stamping himself as the top 3-year-old router in the country. Unfortunately for bettors & connections the judges decided to disqualify him for drifting wide on the last turn and impeding the progress of another horse in the race.
Since this column is wrote from expert handicapper/gamblers to even beginner or causal fans, I must educate everyone on the rules and how due process is handled in the racing game specifically to how the judges evaluate and rule on infractions.
First off there is a rule book that states that no horse can impede or intimidate another horse. If so, he is subject to disqualification by the stewards. In simple letter of the law, was Maximum Security guilty? likely yes although varying views have been interpreted numerous ways, but let’s just make an assumption here that a foul occurred.
After the race 100’s of people called and asked my opinion, yes 100’s. To which my first reply was a question, “the biggest interstate by where you live, what is the speed limit?” Each person responded with 55 or 65, I then asked the next question, “have you ever broke that speed limit?” Every single person said yes, some even said I passed police doing 75 and never got pulled over. Pretty simple the law is in place but is made as a deterrent not an absolute offense. I would be hard pressed to find a person that truly got a speeding ticket for being over the speed limit by a few miles and hour, please come forward as I would venture you were likely railing the officer’s wife and he had a vendetta against you.
In hockey, when a penalty is called and it’s vicious, they then check to see if there is blood, no blood equals a lesser penalty. Are you getting the drift here? Was there any blood? Was there an egregious act that changed the outcome of the race where someone fell down? I’ll let you formulate your own opinion.
So, let’s skip over to Basketball, by definition a basketball player travels if he takes 3 steps after puling up his dribble. See you tube video below of Lebron James, count the steps.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cah8Z_VIxQ
Ok so if that wasn’t enough, see the compilation below of numerous times this has happened with NO call, again it’s in the rules but not enforced.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hz7XG7_YRvo
Now imagine 2021 game 7 of the NBA finals, 10 seconds left, Lebron gets the ball top of the key and drives to the basket takes 4 steps after his dribble in traffic and banks the game winner with no time remaining and the refs blow the whistle and say travel. What happens next? A riot, the ref being dismembered, or maybe the building getting burned to the ground? My guess is maybe all of the above.
Alright alright, let’s get back to horse racing. There are 3 judges are at every track and watch every race live from a perch above the track which allows a magnificent view of the racetrack, additional these judges have numerous camera angles to watch a race. In the event that any of the 3 judges feel something was wrong during or a race or there was a possible infraction, they throw up the inquiry sign. While I don’t have empirical data to support this, I do know a few past and present judges in racing and from what statistical data I have gathered 20% of the inquiries actually result in a disqualification. That means 8 out of 10 have no changes. Additionally, a trainer or jockey can file an objection in a race if they were an affected party. Again, just my research an objection without an inquiry usually has a 1 in 20 chance of a disqualification, so in simple terms 5%.
Before the Derby, below is a video of the 2014 Breeder’s Cup Classic which was the most controversial big stage horse race (that has now been surpassed), you only need to watch the start of this race
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdXaoBxD99Y
Immediately after the race was steward’s inquiry That was eventually disallowed with no change. Now re-watch the Derby
What was worse? Hmmmm again you decide…….but let’s dig further.
Back to the 145th Derby running…….Barbara Borden, Burch Becraft, & Tyler Picklesimer were the 3 judges for Churchill downs who watched the Kentucky Derby, not one of them pushed the button after the race stating an inquiry, so all 3 of them watched the race in real time and felt no foul was committed by any party.
Additionally, the party that filed the objection, was NOT affected at ALL. Interesting, in all my years of racing (since 84’) I have never saw an objection filed by an uninterested 3rd party. Ok, so at least the judges talked to the rider in question whom them made a statement that the #1 horse War of Will was impeded hence the disqualification. Wonder what he said to the judges or his interpretation of what happened? Ok, get this, NO ONE interviewed him……yes you read that correctly, he was never interviewed.
So let’s review the facts, in the biggest race of the year which is most watched and considered the greatest two minutes in sports. A foul was called that happens every day and every racetrack unpenalized, to which a group of 3 judges initially saw no wrongdoing, then never talked to the witness and deciphered maximum Security guilty…..WOW something smells, and it smells very bad….it’s putrid actually.
In the aftermath, you will read the “fake news” from Kentucky Derby winning jockeys like Gary Stevens & Kent Desormeaux saying the horse should have come down. Even industry expert, Mike Watchmaker who writes for the DRF stated the judges did the right thing. Why would they say this, pretty simple political pressure from the racetrack or publication to best diffuse the bomb. If they actually believed that they would be fools.
So why did they take Maximum Security down? Sadly, the answer is easy. The trainer of Maximum Security, Jason Servis has a win strike rate of 30% with what most horseman would question his high success rate to be “cheating”, so he isn’t one of the good old boys, he’s disliked and despised as he improves horses off other trainers. Conversely, the trainer that ran 2nd Bill Mott is a good old boy, does everything the right way and is a poster child for Dudley Do-Right so the horse racing world specifically Kentucky Racing Commission decided to play God and punish the bettors, jockey, owner, and anyone else affiliated with the horse. A travesty. If I were those judges I would like to get into the witness protection program immediately.
In the 2014 Breeder’s Cup Classic in the video you watched above, the #5 Bayern took out 3 horses in the race clearly interfering, yet he was trained by California’s own Bob Baffert while the horse that ran 2nd that day was a foreign invader. Did politics come into play that day? You betcha as they weren’t taking down a local celebrity in Baffert to give the top prize to an invader from another country.
Being a horse owner of both Thoroughbreds & Harness horses, I had had massive exposure to both sports so I asked numerous riders and drivers what their thoughts were on objections, they all had the same feeling, it’s the judge’s responsibility not mine to regulate the racing. One harness driver in particular has participated in over 10,000 races and when I asked him how many objections he filed, the answer was 1 and it was so bad that he was fouled 3 times in the race. I then asked how many times he could file an objection and his answer was weekly so that’s 52 objections a year and over 500+ in this young rider’s career and he only filed 1….shame on you Flavien Prat, karma has a way of working things out so I wish you the best when you end u tumbling over a hub rail one day unexpectedly.
Horse racing will forever be changed by this year’s Derby, no one trusts the process anymore. Attendance drops every year as well as wagering dollars, now that sports gambling has turned into a nationwide phenomenon it will be years and horse racing will be defunct and when people arrive at Pittsburgh area they will not only see a Tyrannosaurs Rex, but likely a jockey and some kid will say, what was that mom, to which she will reply, “that’s a thief or gangster, much like Al Capone”.
In 1962, there was some type of disqualification of a heavy public favorite that was very controversial at Yonkers Raceway in NY, while I don’t remember the particulars, I do remember hearing the story from a participant and he stated the public was so pissed that a riot ensued and they ripped the tote board down, lit all the garbage cans on fire, and tossed paraphernalia onto the track, see video below. While not a proponent of violence, sure would have been entertaining to see the Churchill patrons perform a similar act this year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9WWjtIEyNo
As a fan, horse owner, and amateur journalist, I love horse racing and likely will bet, watch, and own until the curtain comes down. But as a writer, this is my last song. I got the tap on the shoulder it’s time to quit pouring over PP’s, watching replays, and educating both diehard gamblers and casual fans about racing when racing itself can’t get out of its own way.
Jim Dolan, called my first winner as an owner at Mountaineer Park in Chester West Virginia and he retired and called his final race December 30th, 2003. He left with little fanfare having finished his career at a smaller oval with minimal attendance. He wasn’t the most demonstrative race caller and in some respects was rather bland, but I loved him and when he called his last race, he said, “and that’s it”
So this is it….one last time…..
The Derby debacle did great a very good betting race, had the proper result stood Maximum Security would be 3/5 with a very big chance, this year the favorite will likely be 8 to 5 or better which should be a very fair betting race and won where numerous results could occur.
Favorites fare very well in Baltimore, by the numbers below but in all fairness consider this year an anomaly as Derby none of the top 4 Derby horses that crossed the line show up for this, so not sure past statistical analysis can be truly followed:
The Preakness plays to speed. In the last 32 running’s, 20 of those 32 winners were sitting 1-4 at the first call.
Derby runners have come back to win the Preakness 41 of the last 49 editions.
The race’s history has had 73 favorites win in the 143 running’s, that is a 51% clip.
Only 5 of the last 32 races were won wire to wire
Since 1997, 11 of the past 22 Derby winners have doubled up in the Preakness; Furthermore, 15 of the last 22 Derby winners have been no worse than 2nd
Ok, so throw out the stats, this is a rider and trip race, let’s indulge.
Contenders:
#3 Warrior’s Charge– Has the look of a Maximum Security as lightly raced from a barn that sends out a ton of winners and his figures are improving every start. Love the way the public has backed him with 4 straight to the gate public choices. Has shown versatility so I don’t think he is a need the lead type, but I am certain will be forwardly placed. Gets one of the best riders in JJ to boot. The knocks would be the class test as his resume just shows a maiden win and a 1X, now he is in one of the top 5 graded three-year-old dirt races for the year, but remember what Maximum Security did in the Florida Derby. Breeding also is a little shy of classic distances, but I’m giving him a pass on that too. The fresh now horse in a field that is very suspect, upset special.
#4 Improbable– A very nice horse, but get the feeling he is more of pacer who gets involved but lacks the knockout punch. Went off the favorite in the Derby as majorly disappointed with in what I consider a golden trip. Maybe he just didn’t like the slop in last 2 efforts so if you toss that he has the class edge, but accepting 2 to 1 is a little hard to swallow when he hasn’t been able to kick the door down this season including a fast track defeat to Long Range Toddy who in my opinion is a rat. Still it’s Uncle Bob and his resume fits, I do think he will have a say in the outcome, just not the final outcome.
#7 Alwaysmining- Tesio winners get a free pass in this race, but usually are 20 to 1 and only race to get a saddle cloth and the others a buffet dinner in the clubhouse, not the case this year as due to the Kentucky stewards horrendous decision this race has shaped up to be a 2X which frankly plays right into the Maryland bred superstar hands. Beyer speed figures say he fits and if you watch his replays his gobbles up ground when the button is pushed. Likely to be over bet by the local faithful, but would carry one heck of a story if he conquers this mountain.
#13 Win Win Win- The first 3 horse all have the letters War in their name and then he has the name Win Win Win so maybe it’s time to box the 1,2,3,13 in exacta’s and see what happens. Connections said this guy didn’t like the surface at Churchill, so I’ll buy it and give him another chance, my other knock is he’s raced 3 times this season and has been stuck on 89 Beyer speed figures so maybe he just isn’t fast enough. Ok now here is the positive spin, he ran a 99 Beyer as a 2-year-old which is tops in the field (tied with Improbable) so if he runs back to anything close to that number, he’s a major player, local rider/trainer combo adds to appeal.
Selections: 3-4-7-13
Betability: The best I have ever saw since I started coming here in early 90’s, tons of scenarios and plots and subplots could unfold, will be a very good betting board.
Suggested Wagers:
2 unit Win & Place bet 3
1 unit Trifecta wheel 1,2,3,4,5,7,9,11,12,13 / ALL / 4,13
1 unit Exacta wheel 1,2,3,4,5,7,9,11,12,13 / 4,13
1 unit Superfecta wheel 1,2,3,4,5,7,9,11,12,13 / 1,2,3,4,5,7,9,11,12,13 / ALL / 4,13
No saver bet
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#3 Warrior’s Charge- 5 to 1, the “B” version of maximum Security but have a gut feeling he is ready to take the next step, my choice at what should be nice value.
#4 Improbable 7 to 2, I really think he will win some battles but lose the War ultimately, lukewarm favorite and remember Justify was on his hands and knees to win this last year, asking a lot to come back in 2 weeks.
#7 Alwaysmining – 8 to 1, Tesio winner has a big shot if he can match the rise in competition, his gets the shortest ship from his Maryland base, like Dorothy said, “there is no place like home”.
#13 Win Win Win- 10 to 1, My wise guy horse as I get the feeling we haven’t seen his best yet and local trainer / rider know there way around this track, the draw should allow him to settle in wherever he wants.
#1 War of Will- 10 to 1, Prior to his LA Derby flop, he was one of the highest rated three-year old’s, like Improbable asking a lot to come back in two weeks and trainer Casse is a major underachiever on big days, underlay.
#12 Anothertwistafate- 12 to 1, Nothing wrong with his resume and likely ranking him way too low, but I just see him getting hung wide in a speed battle to the turn and then leveling off.
#5 Owendale- 15 to 1, Upset winner of the Lexington Stakes and got a nice 98 Beyer, but when Cox’s is double digits at Churchill & Fairgrounds speaks volumes to me that this guy is a little soft in the AM, needs a trip.
#2 Bourbon War- 15 to 1, If you are looking for a very live longshot, stop here as this lad ran on the heels twice of Code of Honor in Florida on what turned out to be some key races, also projects to get a great stalking trip and the blinks go on.
#11 Laughing Fox- 20 to 1, Asmussen owned this weekend in 18’ and this late runner has the same running style as Looking at Lee, not sure he will run them all down, but one who should be showing up late on the scene and filling exotics.
#9 Bodexpress- 40 to 1, only maiden in the race who does pick up Johnny V, would need to get out and settle and hope all the others got caught in quicksand, a tall task.
#8 Signalman- 40 to 1, like Laughing Fox will be another runner that will show up late on the scene, speed figures say he just simply isn’t fast enough.
#6 Market King 100 to 1, both Court & Coach D Wayne should retire, they are both bad for the game, this horse is even money to run dead last and I wouldn’t take action on it.
# Everfast 300 to 1, only thing fast about him is part of his name, he was 40 to 1 in a 1X 4 starts ago, the co-favorite to run up the track.
Thanks to all my loyal listeners over the years, it has been a great ride. I’ll leave you with a “modified” Irish Blessing.
May the track stewards be kind to you
May the wind be always at your back
May the sun shine on your ass when your horse is 20 to 1+
When the rain falls onto the turf your horse has a good Tomlinson rating
And until we meet again May the racing God’s help hold you in the palm of their hands.
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com