Before I get started, I’d like to give a shout out to friend Don Tiger and The Equine Investor (www.equineinvestor.com ) for giving me the opportunity to share my thoughts for the first time with a larger audience. I’ve been reading his commentary for a number of years and hope to justify his opinion of giving me a chance to fill his handicapping shoes for the third leg of the Triple Crown Challenge. Hopefully, this year’s Belmont Selections will be ‘on the money’.
Before moving into Saturday’s opinions and selections; a brief re-cap of what’s happened in the past three weeks. The Kentucky Derby controversy continues with the possibility of a judge reversing the decision of the Churchill Downs Stewards and naming BOTH Maximum Security and Country House co-winners of the Derby. Stay tuned as this soap opera continues.
War of Will made good on Trainer Mark Casse’s words at Old Hilltop in winning The Preakness. Claiming all his horse needed was a ‘fair shot’, it’s exactly what he got. The only ‘controversy’ was Hall of Fame Jockey John Velasquez falling off Bodexpress at the start and keeping the horse’s Maiden status in-tact. Thankfully, the son of Bodemeister stayed to the outside of the pack and never raised the fear of what could have been potential disaster.
The oldest leg of the Triple Crown Challenge resumes at Elmont, NY as the eleventh race scheduled for 6:37 PM, and maybe the biggest surprise will be it’s the first jewel race in recent memory where Bob Baffert will not have a horse entered. He withdrew Game Winner; stating he wasn’t ‘where he wanted him to be’. Good call, Bob. As usual, the “Test of the Champion” will be run at a distance none of the ten horses entered have ever run at, and most likely, will never run again. With all that noted, onto the selections.
Contenders
Post # 10 Tacitus (9/5) – Finished the highest (officially) of all the Derby horses entered here and this other Bill Mott trained horse looked like a mile and a half could be right in his wheelhouse. Mott’s won 10 Belmont training titles, so he knows the track. Give him a clean trip and I believe this guy is your winner.
Hate to play chalk, but you last longer in this sport taking what the track gives you rather than being a hero.
Post # 7 Sir Winston (12-1) – Lost the Peter Pan here last month by a length in what was arguably his best start of an inconsistent 2019. Has the bloodlines that suggest the distance shouldn’t be a problem. He’s the only horse in the field with a triple digit Beyer Figure. His main issue will be his late running style in a race that favors horses on or slightly near the lead. Trainer Mike Casse’s OTHER horse might just be sitting on an effort that gets him to the winner’s circle. Love that jockey Joel Rosario sticks with him.
Post #9 War of Will (2-1) – If he could have avoided the final turn fiasco at Churchill Downs a month ago, could we have been looking at another potential Triple Crown winner? Of that we’ll never know. His breeding says distance, but he will be the only horse to have danced all the dances this year, and it takes a special horse to have a say in all of them; much less win them. I think he puts up a great fight, but gets beaten in the shadow of the wire.
Post # 8 Intrepid Heart (10-1) – Lightly raced son of Tapit is one of two entered by Todd Pletcher, and this one sold as a 2yo for $750,000 at the 2018 Ocala sale. A winner of two lesser races, his stakes debut was a troubled trip in the Peter Pan on this surface. I think the distance will be his undoing, but you’ll be getting the best betting odds to date on him. Could run underneath with a clean start, but preferring others for the win.
Selections = 10-7-9-8
Betability – On a scale of 1 to 10, probably a 6 or 7. Although any Triple Crown race favors better prices, simply because of the pool sizes, it’s highly unlikely you’ll see anything close to the eventual Derby payoffs, or even the generous exotic returns at Pimlico three weeks ago.
Notable Notes
Although in its 150 runnings, 42% of odds-on favorites have won the Belmont, only 2 of the last 13 have.
Jockey Mike Smith is 3 for 21 in the Belmont Stakes
Comments on the horses by post
Post # 1 Joevia (30-1) – Went a bit off his rocker in Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial and even though fading to finish seventh; was knocked down a couple more pegs for interference. Although a sloppy track moves him up, he’s yet to win back to back races and still needs to prove himself against graded company. Jockey Jose Lezcano’s next Triple Crown victory will be his first.
Post # 2 Everfast (12-1) – Received a masterful ride by Joel Rosario (now riding Sir Winston) in the second leg of The Crown and cost me what would have been a pretty nice exacta. It all comes down to which horse will show up in Elmont NY. His grand-sire is AP Indy, who I saw win the Belmont back in 1992. His mare’s grand-sire is Awesome Again, who won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1998; so the bloodlines are there. His form is scatter-shot, and his speed figures are average at best. In a ten horse field; he has a chance, but he’s still only won once – and I think he’ll come up short again.
Post # 3 Master Fencer (8-1) – The rational handicapper in me says. “Wait until one of these horses win before you even start thinking about them.” The longshot player says, “Then you’ll have missed the one that paid the best price.” So what to do? His trainer has told reporters that The Belmont was always the goal and that the Japanese dirt racing surfaces are similar to Belmont’s Big Sandy setup. He’s stayed in The States after Churchill to continue his prep, but stumbled badly in a recent work on this oval. His sire; Just A Way, never won at this distance in three tries. I’ll have a saver on him, but he’s either worst or first. Bonzai!
Post # 4 Tax (15-1) – With the exception of drawing Post 2 for the Derby, he really had no excuses. He dropped straight back and pretty well stayed there. Connections considered pulling him from this off his last workout. If you’re looking for anything, it would be that the Derby was his first time on a sloppy track and he despised the kickback or that he’s a New York based horse. He’s going to need an alert start, but distance maybe his greatest foe come Saturday.
Post # 5 Bourbon War (12-1) – I really thought this horse would have showed more in the Preakness, and trainer Mark Henning ends the failed Blinkers experiment. Another with some really excellent breeding for the distance. Loses NY Jock Irad Ortiz, but gets Mike Smith to ride. Mixed feelings.
Post # 6 Spinoff (15-1) – First of two for Todd Pletcher really had no excuses in The Derby; where he started well midpack, and went straight to the rear – beating just one horse in what may have been his worst effort to date. Can’t touch him here.
Post # 7 Sir Winston (12-1) – See Main Selections
Post # 8 Intrepid Heart (10-1) – See Main Selections.
Post # 9 War of Will (2-1) – See Main Selections.
Post # 10 Tacitus (-1) – See Main Selections.
Final Comments and Betting Strategy
First of all, I need to send a thank you note to Bob Baffert for entering Improbable in the Preakness. It was everyone jumping on his bandwagon that allowed War of Will to pay an incredibly generous $14.40 to win. Saturday’s selections, keeping it short and sweet.
3 units to win on #3 Master Fencer
3 units to place and show on #7 Sir Winston
5 unit Exacta Partwheels
Sir Winston over Master Fencer, Bourbon War, Intrepid Heart, War Of Will, Tacitus
7 over the 3, 5, 8, 9, 10
Tacitus over Master Fencer, Bourbon War, Sir Winston, Intrepid Heart, War Of Will
10 over the 3, 5, 7, 8, 9
5 unit Peter Pan exacta box
Sir Winston and Intrepid Heart
Box 7 -8
1 unit Trifecta Partwheel
Sir Winston and Tacitus over
Sir Winston, Tacitus and War of Will
over the field.
(7, 10) over (7, 9, 10) over ALL
No Matter the outcome; let’s hope for a safe journey for all of our human and equine athletes, and that whatever wagers you make are winning ones!
Ted “Turnpike” Beaumont, professional handicapper