Kentucky Derby-(Louisville, Kentucky) the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby is carded as race 12 this Saturday at Churchill Downs, approximate scheduled post time is 6:57PM. The field consists of 20 entrants who are vying to make history having their name forever etched in racing lore. The weather forecast is projecting potential rain storms Saturday with seasonal temperatures with a 40% chance of precipitation. Note, Friday had consistent rain, track could play “off”.
After a 5-year hiatus, I have dusted myself off to take a deeper look into The Run For The Roses. This is most prestigious race in North America, also the only race bettors get 20 wagering interests here in the states; most sporting events have their signature event at the end of the season, but Nascar and horse racing use their season kick-off as their big event. As horse racing continues to die a slow death, even the casual fan still knows the greatest two minutes in sports.
As an owner, breeder, handicapper, and most importantly a fan, the texts/emails/calls come in every year around this time looking for same info, who you like in Derby?
No one wants to address the elephant in room with racing, simply put that’s the main problem of why racing will eventually perish. The issues are too long to address but for at least one day, this special day, even the casual sports fan gets Derby fever so like a fine wine or good meal, let’s partake.
Perennial Derby leading trainer Baffert is absent again this year due to his ban, I mention that because he had a few runners in Muth & Imagination who would have made this field and both of those runners would have been under 10 to 1 at post time. As a handicapper, that means two lesser accomplished runners make the field. IMO, that makes this race more formful but as a fan, certainly disappointing.
As I sit at my office and have all the pieces to this 2024 Derby, this is what I see to separate pretenders from contenders:
Let’s start eliminating and identifying pretenders,
First, there is the Tiger Test, analytically I use 3 criteria below to eliminate horses, just another way to look at things statisticially:
The Apollo jinx/curse was finally broken by Justify in 2018 and then again last year by Mage in 2023, but that is only 3 horses in history from 1882 to 2023 for that feat to be accomplished and there were tons of failed attempts in between so I won’t abandon this angle into the future as non-starting 2 year old’s are pitches in the Derby for me, Just a Touch & T O Password fit that criteria
Since 1980, 39 of the 44 Derby winners were out of a winning dam. That is 88% and here are the ones that are NOT out of a race winning dam: Catalytic, T O Password, West Saratoga, Endlessly, Domestic Product, Epic Ride, Mugatu
Since 1996, 25 of the last 28 (88%) Derby winners who crossed the wire 1st finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep; the other 3 were Mine That Bird, Giacomo, & Rich Strike (3 of the 4 longest prices ever) who finished 3rd or 4th in their final preps lighting up the board and paying over $100 to win. Dornoch, Mystik Dan, Track Phantom, Grand Mo The First, Epic Ride, & Mugatu can be eliminated.
That screener leaves us 9 horses, but to me you can trim another horse as Society Man has zero chance, I’m not even sure he will ever win a graded stake in his career.
8 are left, each of those I could make a case for but also understand there are three hurdles all 20 entrants must overcome: First time racing in a 20 horse bulky field, first time going a mile and a quarter, and carrying 126 lbs for the first time in their careers. To win the Derby, you have to have the horsepower, have your horse peaking, be in the right spot, but most importantly got to be lucky.
Contenders:
#2 Sierra Leone– Connections bucked up 2.3 MIL for this guy so the expectations were high from September of 22’ and hasn’t disappointed one bit, speed figures are improving, arguably the most consistent runner in the field. The only knock on this guy is he likes to dawdle early so he likely will need to pass 15-18 horses in order to make his way to the infield winner’s circle. Rider Gaffalione has been the best rider at Churchill over past few years and trainer Brown is shooting at a 25% win clip and needs no introduction. If he gets a clean trip, he will be hard to deny BUT that is far from a guarantee, my choice.
#15 Domestic Product– Yes this horse was eliminated on my screener and Yes Gafflione gets off him to ride my top pick, but not so fast, he closed from a pedestrian pace to win the non-betting Tampa Derby which was delayed for over 40 minutes which shows this guy is a professional, individually timed in one of the fastest last 3 furlongs of any of the final preps, had ample time to recover which Chad always does with his runners, figs are very light but if he has improved in the last 50 days which is very possible, he’s a major player at a juicy price
#17 Fierceness- I crushed him in the Cup at 16 to 1 so I have sentimental feelings here. Really wanted to pick him on top, but he has shown an every other pattern and using history this is supposed to be the flat race. My late handicapping buddy Al never liked to bet a horse coming off a lifetime effort so that’s another knock, you want more? The #17 post has never won the Derby. For the backers, he does enter this off a scintillating effort which earned a 110 Beyer figure and if you are a karma believer same connections had last year’s favorite get a vet scratch so maybe racing God’s are looking out? Mixed feelings.
#8 Just A Touch– Sure Cox technically has won the Derby, but this KY native wants to be able to do it in person while his animal crosses the wire 1st so one of these years with the stock he keeps getting, it’s going to happen. This guy ran 2nd to my top pick in the Bluegrass and figures to be a pace player in this race, sometimes horses get in the right spot and that makes them the best horse, he’s live and packs the best punch from the Cox barn in this edition.
Selections: 2-15-17-8
Betability: fair betting race, but it looks to run to form with all major players having good post draws. With only a handful of “A” runners and a few more “B” runners that have a shot, I doubt the result will be a head scratcher; But, this is the toughest race to handicap and win that is run in North America so there is always that chance for the unknown even if slim this year. Track bias and a potential scratch or two could always stir the pot. If reaching on a longshot, be sure to ladder him in the trifecta and superfecta underneath.
Suggested Wagers:
2 & 15 to Win & Place for 1 unit
2 & 15 wheeled first and second in Exacta’s with All (except the 1,5,13,14,16,20,21,22) for 1 unit
Trifecta box 8 horses for 1 unit ($336 a unit (.50 play would be $168)) 2,4,7,8,12,15,17,19
Superfecta Wheel for 1 unit 2,15,17 / 2,4,7,8,15,17 / 2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,15,17,18,19 / 4,7,15 ($320 a unit)
Saver bet: 1 unit Exacta 17 / 2,3,4,6,7,8,15,18,19
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#2 Sierra Leone – 5 to 2, when the NCCA Men’s Hoops tournament began this year, I knew UCONN was the best team, I just didn’t know how they would go through the field, same thoughts here, best animal.
#15 Domestic Product- 25 to 1, worked out with my top pick in last drill for both and didn’t give an inch, sometimes the “other” stablemate gets the trip, wouldn’t shock me, live longshot.
#17 Fierceness- 4 to 1, I could have ran 2nd with a midget on my back in FL Derby, fast but erratic form, proceed with caution.
#8 Just a Touch- 9 to 1, Cox, Geroux, improving figs, speed, what is not to like?
#7 Honor Marie- 18 to 1, the feel good story in the Derby, trainer was in hospital, former assistant to Brown, modest purchase price, fan’s wise guy horse.
#11 Forever Young- 20 to 1, undefeated and has done everything right but barn buzz is he’s not 100%, this foreign entrant angle has NEVER worked.
#4 Catching Freedom- 14 to 1, well supported at windows and solid paper figures, but insiders say a little dull in AM.
#3 Mystik Dan- 30 to 1, connections doing a rain dance as his best effort was in mud in Arkansas, fringe player.
#18 Stronghold – 25 to 1, lone CA runner mainly due to the Baffert ban, don’t sell too short, does own a victory over the strip
#10 T O Password- 35 to 1, the other Japan runner is only making his 3rd career start, but worked well for this, mid pack ceiling.
#6 Just Steel- 35 to 1, most experienced runner in the field making his 12th start, for Coach’s fan club only.
#12 Track Phantom- 40 to 1, adds a hood for this showing he loves to be forwardly placed, could hang for a slice.
#19 Resilience- 30 to 1, NY Preps have been irrelevant for 20+ years, that trend will continue.
#1 Dornoch- 50 to 1, is going from the bell, but will find company, know him early, watch him fade late.
#14 Endlessly – 40 to 1, future turf star was lured into this spot, could get eased but if you are looking for an angle at a big price, what if he takes to dirt?
#5 Catalytic- 50 to 1, only angle you would believe in here is that this one rand 2nd to Fierceness in FL Derby.
#16 Grand Mo The First 75 to 1, simply not fast enough butdoes have a chance to run mid-pack off right trip.
#21 Epic Ride- 50 to 1, ran a game 3rd in Bluegrass but blood says turf for future, speed is his game and not drawn for that.
#20 Society Man – 150 to 1, doesn’t deserve to be in race, the only question is will he pass his stablemate.
#13 West Saratoga- 250 to 1, a slow horse similar to Epic Ride, wants to be upfront but won’t get there.
#22 Mugata- 1000 to 1, would still need to draw in, but if did strictly will be for a saddle pad souvenir.
This year’s Preakness should see some very intriguing new shooters, be sure to follow along with my on the Triple Crown trail as that publication will be out May 15 at as well as the Belmont Stakes on June 6th at www.equineinvestor.com
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com