Kentucky Derby-(Louisville, Kentucky) the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby is carded as race 12 this Saturday at Churchill Downs, approximate scheduled post time is 6:50PM. The field consists of 20 entrants who are vying to make history having their name on a placard in the paddock at the storied Churchill Downs. The weather forecast shows cloudy with mild temps with a 100% chance of rain, Friday’s forecast was for 90% rain so main track likely sloppy with turf yielding, make those adjustments in your handicapping.
It’s perplexing that the only race in the US that has 20 horses go to the gate raced in early spring without fully matured animals has been able to produce 6 straight winning favorites. It’s actually so baffling that I needed to dig deeper into it. Prior to 2012, entrants got into the Kentucky Derby through graded stakes earnings, most viewed the system flawed as horses gathering points on Turf or Sprints or early at age 2 races accumulated enough to make the gate. Starting in 2013, a new point system was implemented called the Road to the Kentucky Derby, this system setup races and weighted these races so that only battled tested performers in the sport’s major prep races earn a spot in the gate. Interesting, since this was implemented all favorites have won.
An analytical friend of mine and I had a deep discussion about this, it’s a small sample size, but the hypothesis is showing that “now” horses are hitting the gate which means recency and current form is going to hold firmer. So, one can surmise, the higher point earners are going to have better results. The last 6 Derby winners had the final points rankings of: 1,1,2,4,7,9 cumulatively……another angle that might just show the next Derby winner and future winner’s for years to come might be in the top ten in the standings? Below are the final 2019-point standings.
2019 Road to the Derby Final Points standings (horse, trainer, points, career earnings)
- Tacitus Bill Mott 150 $610,000
- Omaha Beach Richard Mandella 137.5 $1,050,000
- Vekoma George Weaver 110 $747,600
- Plus Que Parfait Brendan Walsh 104 $1,540,400
- Roadster Bob Baffert 100 $636,000
- By My Standards Bret Calhoun 100 $600,000
- Maximum Security Jason Servis 100 $582,800
- Game Winner Bob Baffert 85 $1,810,000
- Code of Honor Shug McGaughey 74 $432,070
- Haikal Kiaran McLaughlin 70 $322,500
- Improbable Bob Baffert 65 $589,520
- War of Will Mark Casse 60 $440,840
- Long Range Toddy Steve Asmussen 53.5 $830,000
- Tax Danny Gargan 52 $307,500
- Cutting Humor Todd Pletcher 50 $462,467
- Win Win Win Mike Trombetta 50 $350,000
- Country House Bill Mott 50 $220,000
- Gray Magician Peter Miller 41 $526,000
- Spinoff Todd Pletcher 40 $224,000
- Master Fencer (JPN) Koichi Tsunoda Japan Road to Derby $234,392
- Bodexpress Gustavo Delgado 40 $188,000
So what does this mean? An engineer might say wheel the top 9 on the list on top and you will cash. A lawyer might say stare decisis proves only the top 9 can win, but what does the accountant say?
One of my favorite jokes,
An engineer, a lawyer, and an accountant are called in individually to answer the age-old question, what is 2 + 2?
The engineer is 1st up, he goes into the interrogation room and is asked what is 2 +2, he replies, “if you look strictly at the numbers it has to be 4, the math adds up and can’t be debated, it is an absolute”
The lawyer is up next and states, “the letter of the law says it’s 4, it’s been 4 for centuries”
Finally, the accountant enters the room and when asked what is 2 + 2? He stands up, looks around, walks over and closes the door and goes back up to the interrogator and whispers, “what do you want it to equal”
This accountant (yes that is what my college degree is in) can’t argue with the engineer or lawyer, but I also think a bit outside the box so feel free to add this angle to your betting repertoire, but don’t let it be your only guide.
There is also the Tiger Test, analytically I use 3 criteria below to eliminate horses, last year I was able to eliminate 12 of 20 entrants and of the remaining 8 two of them ran 2nd & 3rd again just another way to look at things:
The Apollo jinx/curse was finally broken by Justify last year, but we learned he was a superstar so it took a real champion to buck history from 1882 to 2018 for that feat to be accomplished and there were tons of failed attempts in between so I won’t abandon this angle into the future as non-starting 2 year old’s are pitches in the Derby, ironically there are none this year.
Since 1980, 34 of the 39 Derby winners were out a winning dam. That is 86% and here are the ones that are NOT out of a race winning dam: Plus Que Parfait, Game Winner, Haikal, Cutting Humor, Bodexpress..
Since 1996, 21 of the last 23 Derby winners finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep; the other 2 were Mine That Bird & Giacomo (2 of the 3 longest prices ever) who both finished 4th in their final preps both lighting up the board and paying over $100 to win. Code of Honor, Haikal, War of Will, Long Range Toddy, & Country House can be eliminated.
After eliminating the ones above, 11 are still left: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,14,15,17,19…I really think only 10 are left as the Japanese horse is a complete pitch. Maybe box the remaining 10 horse for $1 in the exacta for nostalgia ($90 bet)
Some other interesting stats, the Wood prep race since 2003 has produced no on the board finishes with 31 starters, doesn’t bode to well for Tacitus, Tax, & Haikal.
As most know, I am the eye test handicapper, sure speed figures, breeding, angles all come into analysis but a 3 year old filly called Newspaperofrecord (she’s racing in the 6th Race on Friday) I watched her races and she covers the ground like as good of a horse I have ever saw. I knew she was a cinch in the Breeders Cup last year and that was off solid but unspectacular speed figures so the eye can be a powerful thing. PS: she airs Friday.
My eyes think any of my 1st 10 could easily win this and I wouldn’t be shocked if my #8, #9, or #10 pick steps up and gets it done. The preps showed this bunch being competitive and I think the trip equalizer this year will finally make a mild price play get there. I’m not even sure at this point who will go to the gate favored, but I am betting against us going for 7 straight public choices especially with another off track projected.
Morning line favorite Omaha Beach has been scratched, sorry to see as Mandella/Porter are both deserving of a Derby victory, hopefully another superstar emerges from both of their barns in the future.
Is it just me or do we seem to get shitty weather every Derby weekend anymore? I am taking a sabbatical this year and glad I did as the forecast is ugly which usually leads to a bunch of scratches on the undercard.
Three hurdles all 20 entrants must overcome: First time racing in a 20-horse bulky field, first time going a mile and a quarter, and carrying 126 lbs. for the first time in their careers. Can we get 7 straight favorites? We will find out in 2 minutes……………
Contenders:
#7 Maximum Security– A very trusted horseman called me Florida Derby day and asked me if I would bet $500 to win on this guy, a quick glance of the PP’s I scoffed at it but did graciously place his bet. To me, he was a sprinter who broke his maiden for a 16K claiming tag, so let’s be honest how good can he be? He then went out and ran the 2nd highest Brisnet speed figure and the highest Beyer speed fig of all the prep races. Those against will say he got away with slow fractions so much that the horse who was chasing him was a 71 to 1 maiden who held 2nd. I also investigated the breeding and the West homebred shows a Dosage Index of 3.0 with a CD of .86 which says he can go a mile and a quarter. Will be forwardly placed, but I don’t think he needs to lead to win as he showed rating in his 2nd career start. To me has the look of Justify, undefeated and can make his own race and happens to be wearing the same saddle cloth number. Trainer is kin to past Derby winning trainer of Smarty Jones, gotta think a few pointers crossed the table at Thanksgiving, saw rider Saez at breakfast last year and he’s a great kid that is ready to take the next step, my choice.
#5 Improbable– Uncle Bob enters 3 in here and the experts would likely rank this guy at the bottom of that brigade. Young upcoming rider Van Dyke was this guy’s exercise rider all winter and I heard a few interviews from him that were very impressive, since then he was replaced by Jose Ortiz who then abandoned him for Tacitus now brother Irad gets the mount. Trip wise could be a nice cozy spot behind my top pick, like stablemate Game Winner he has a win over this course last November and that was off some pretty swift fractions drawing away. Only lost a length to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby and Baffert could easily make that up. Distance pedigree is a little suspect with a DI of 4.23 & a CD of .97 but others with worse distance pedigrees (Always Dreaming & Nyquist) found a way to the infield winner circle stand so not enough reason to abandon. Has never been worse then 9/5 in any race of his career and today you will get 4-5 times that. Winstar to win back to back Derbies? Not Improbable!
#14 Win Win Win– the jockey trainer Combo of Pimentel/Trombetta is relatively unknown outside of Maryland, but these guys click at a 23% clip together. This stage is a lot bigger than where they normally compete so I will admit maybe these waters might just be too deep. But no one knew Chip Wooley and he drove Mine That Bird from New Mexico and left with the hardware so dreams can come true. I have heard this horse is a bit quirky, but his last work was impressive chasing the Mott entrants down. Another one without stellar distance pedigree with DI of 4.50 & a CD of .91and his figures are pretty light so maybe he just isn’t fast enough. Both of his grandad’s were Derby winners so the blood can’t be all that bad, my main reason for liking is running style, the outside draw should keep him out of harm’s way and when the real running begins, he should be the one making up ground if B circuit rider can stay patient. Lot’s of IF’s make him a risky proposition, but at 20 to 1 or better he makes an interesting exotic filler.
#8 Tacitus- his dam was a helluva runner, cashed more then a few tickets on her, Mott said this was his Derby horse last year and he has slowly backed up that talk with a spot in the starting gate. I did like how he closed in his last 2, but those were perfect setups for closers with a bias, The Wood just hasn’t really been a productive prep since Funny Cide / Empire Maker and with all due respect to Danny Gargan, he was tooth and nail in the Wood with a former 30K claimer. Jose had his choice of this guy or Improbable and stayed here, trainer Mott is one of the good guys in the sport so hard not to root for. Would need a ton of things to break his way to get unsaddled in the winner’s circle, but he will certainly have a say in the outcome.
Selections: 7-5-14-8
Betability: Wonderful, well matched horses with no true standout especially after morning line favorite Omaha Beach was scratched, money should be well spread around so the payoffs will be generous in all pools.
Suggested Wagers:
5 & 7 to Win & Place for 1 unit
5 & 7 wheeled first and second in Exacta’s with All (except the 4,9,15, & 20) for 1 unit
Exacta Wheel 2 unit 7,11,14,16 / 2,4,5,6,7,8,8,10,11,14,16,17,18,19,20,21
Trifecta Wheel ($112 for $1) 16,17 / 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,10,11,13,14,16,17,18,19,21 / 6,13,14,21
Trifecta Wheel ($112 for $1) 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,10,11,13,14,16,17,18,19,21 / 16,17 / 6,13,14,21
Superfecta Wheel for 1 unit 16,17 / 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,10,11,13,14,16,17,18,19,21 / 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,10,11,13,14,16,17,18,19,21 / 6,13,14,21
($1456 a unit) (for large budget players only)
Saver bet: 1-unit Exacta Box, 1,2,5,6,7,8,13,16, & 17
Should you be interested in the Oaks on Friday, it is a 14-horse competitive field, I like Restless Rider (#14), she has never been out of the exacta in 7 career starts and has had success over this oval already in 4 starts, the post is a challenge but with all the speed signed on will be a stalking late threat.
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#7 Maximum Security – 6 to 1, should employ same tactics as Justify did last year, the one to beat.
#5 Improbable- 5 to 1, Any of the Baffert trio could win this, he’s the least likely on paper which as a contrarian I don’t mind, proven over wet track.
#14 Win Win Win- 15 to 1, my wise guy horse but has to run a lot faster, will be doing best work late.
#8 Tacitus- 9 to 1, mixed feelings as I like things and dislike things about him, does own an off-track win.
#16 Game Winner- 6 to 1, defending BC juvenile champ did it over this surface, has a big chance.
#6 Vekoma- 18 to 1, I dismissed this horse at first glance, but with Omaha defection I have come back around, legit longshot player.
#17 Roadster- 7 to 1, Baffert runners are interchangeable IMO, the one with the best trip will make the most noise, capable new rider.
#1 War of Will- 20 to 1, horrific post & coming off a real clunker, but maybe training better than any horse, if finds his way could be dangerous.
#13 Code of Honor – 35 to 1, Shug won this with Orb and flies under the radar in here, one run type who will look to stalk and pounce, slice might be ceiling.
#2 Tax- 30 to 1, rags to riches story as he was haltered for 50K and is now in Derby, poor draw but has had rail in 3 of his 5 starts, sneaky feeling he will gun and go from bell.
#19 Spinoff- 40 to 1, from here down, you are reaching, homebred appears to be getting better but would need to grow up leaps and bounds to factor.
#21 Bodexpress- 40 to 1, maiden is getting better every start and draws in from the AE list, did chase my top pick home so a slice is possible.
#11 Haikal- 40 to 1, looks to be distanced challenged which is my main knock, connections like the forecast as he has a high Tomlinson wet track rating.
#3 By My Standards- 50 to 1, scored at 22 to 1 in LA Derby, if you missed the wedding don’t show up for the funeral.
#18 Long Range Toddy- 50 to 1, took a big step back in last and that was in the slop, off that hard to endorse.
#10 Cutting Humor- 50 to 1, B horse of Pletcher’s, does get Lanerie who is top local rider, has his work cut out.
#20 Country House- 75 to 1, has the look of a plodder who runs good enough to get into the pack, not sure if will get into the exotics.
#9 Plus Que Parfait- 100 to 1, gets into race off Dubai score, ran a 58 Beyer prior to that stateside, not for me.
#15 Master Fencer- 100 to 1, has a late running style which is his only plus, but class wise he is leaps and bounds behind this group, pass.
#4 Gary Magician- 100 to 1, Peter Miller is a good trainer and he will have his say one year in this race, it won’t be this year with a horse that can’t win a 2 life.
This year’s Preakness should see some very intriguing new shooters, be sure to follow along with me on the Triple Crown trail as that publication will be out May 16th at as well as the Belmont Stakes on June 6th at www.equineinvestor.com
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com