Turnpike Ted’s 2019 Breeder’s Cup Commentary and Selections for Day One
“Future Stars Friday”
Friday, November 1, 2019
Thoroughbred racing ends a tumultuous year with its Breeders Cup Championships, making its 10th stop at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. After a Kentucky Derby result that went to the court system, and a Triple Crown winner whose drug test was questioned – throwing doubt on whether he should ever been able to race in that series; we end 2019 at the venue where euthanasia made more headlines than the racing results.
Del Mar, which played host two years ago; probably could have done so again, albeit with some complications – but the “Powers That Be” have decided that they’ll tempt fate and run here anyway. Keep your fingers crossed that the equine athletes can leave this weekend the same way they entered it.
As always, please stay alert for any late program changes and scratches for both days. Off we go.
Santa Anita’s Race 5 – The Juvenile Turf Sprint; Purse $1,000,000 – 4:12 PM
Bulletproof One (#13) – Hoping to take advantage of the two favorites casting a giant shadow on this field, Trainer Peter Miller’s filly has run the fastest 5 furlong time of the Americans entered. Miller also has a 25% strike rate with his 2nd time turf starters. She’s based at this track – so here’s to trying to score a big price right out of the gate. NOTE: Must Draw in from the Also Eligible List – If she doesn’t draw into this race, look for her on the undercard either today or Saturday.
Four Wheel Drive (#9) and Kimari (#7) are both trained by turf legend Wesley Ward and both took somewhat different paths to today’s race. Both have excellent form, have the breeding and speed figures to take this event. Both will compete for favoritism at the betting windows.
A’ Ali (#10) – Has yet to lose when teamed up with All World Jockey, Frankie Dettori and has the highest average Timeform ratings of the Europeans entered here. Would be no surprise.
The Conditional Play
If #13 is in – Win and show bet on #13
Exacta Partwheel 7,9,13 over 7,9,10,13
If #13 is out
Exacta Partwheel 7.9,10 over 2,7,9,10
Santa Anita’s Race 6 – The Juvenile Turf Purse $1,000,000 – 4:52 PM
Arizona (#12) – Has been facing the stiffest of competition overseas, but hasn’t won a race since June. Irish breds have had a decent record in the BC. Europeans have won seven of the last eight editions, but this guy needs to prove something today. A shaky call.
Structor (#2) – A rare important turf race Trainer Chad Brown has yet to win. This horse cuts back in distance to where he will be a definite threat. Omit at your peril.
Decorated Invader (#4) – The only Grade One winner of the bunch, but Trainer Clement entrants are 0-36 in Breeder’s Cup attempts. Will be closing late.
Hit The Road (#14) – Probably the best of the local horses, (California based horses have never hit the exacta) is unbeaten on grass and at the distance. Trainer Dan Blacker has had success with his limited entries at Santa Anita. Post position hurts.
The play – Exacta partwheel 2,12 over (2,4,6,12,14)
50 Cent Pick Three (2,12) with (1,4,7) with (3,5,12)
Santa Anita’s Race 7 – The Juvenile Fillies; Purse $2,000,000 – 5:32 PM
British Idiom (#4) – Easy Peazy winner of Keeneland’s Alcibiades Handicap, this daughter of Flashback hopes to extend her perfect career start to three wins for the formidable Brad Cox.
Donna Veloce (#1) – Broke her maiden in a visually impressive and devastating manner on this surface five weeks ago, with a six furlong time of 1:09.3 – galloping out the extra half furlong to win by nine lengths. Connections immediately throw her into the deep end of the pool and if as good as her debut, everyone else is running for second.
Wicked Whisper (#7) – Frizette winner has yet to taste defeat and should be another who is right there at the finish. Frizette winners have taken four of the last eight editions.
Bast (#6) – Bob Baffert trained filly has already beaten some of these, but only won here last time by a neck. Just think the other three are better at this time.
The play – Exacta partwheel 1,4,7 over 1,4,6,7
Santa Anita’s Race 8 – The Juvenile Fillies Turf; Purse $1,000,000 – 6:12 PM
Shadn (#3) – I’m going to take a flyer on this European sprinter who’s had trouble in her last three starts. She’s got both Scat Daddy and Sadler’s Wells in her pedigree and her Timeform ratings have improved in every race since June. There’s no world beaters in here, and should be a nice price.
Daahyeh (#5) – Never worse than second in five lifetime starts. Underrated Trainer Roger Varian has been slowly stretching her out in distance for this race.
The play – Win and show bet on #3.
Exacta partwheel 3,5 over 2,3,5,12,13
Double Partwheel 3 with 1,6,9
Santa Anital’s Race 9 – The Juvenile; Purse $2,000,000 – 7:03 PM
This maybe one of the easier races to eliminate potential also-rans as it looks to be a four horse race. Eight Rings (#6) and Dennis’ Moment (#1) share amazingly similar records Both are unbeaten in the starts where their jockeys didn’t fall off the horse. Eight Rings has the home field advantage and the bonus of beating Grade 1 company in his last. Favorites and Trainer Bob Baffert have been successful when the race is run on the Left Coast.
The play – Exacta Partwheel 1,6 over 1,5,6
Turnpike Ted’s 2019 Breeder’s Cup Commentary and Selections for Day Two
Saturday, November 2, 2019
Fortunately for me this year, I’m still playing with the house’s money from Belmont Stakes Day back in June and what turned out to be a profitable Colonial Downs Turf Meet (Yes, Colonial Downs; in Virginia) Hopefully, Day One brought no tragedies or controversies, and it’s full steam ahead for the headliners.
Santa Anita’s Race 4 – The Filly And Mare Sprint; Purse $1,000,000 – 2:55 PM
Come Dancing (#4) – No worse than second in her last six starts, she boasts the best speed figure, and it was done at this distance. Versatile 5YO will make things tough on the favorite who should be………
Covfefe (#1) – Two for two at this distance and most likely post time favorite. Two notes of concern. The last time she posted a career speed fig, she bounced in the next race. Also note that four straight favorites of this race finished off the board. Food for thought. Don’t try to pay off the student loan debt here.
Selcourt (#7) – Finished dead last in this race last year; ah, but that was at Churchill Downs! She’s only been off the board once at Santa Anita, and that was a loss to my top choice.
Bellafina (#6) – Has won all four of her starts at Santa Anita. Will need a career effort to make it five.
The play – Exacta partwheel 1,4,7 over 1,4,6,7,9
50 cent Pick Three (1,4,7) with (3,10) with (5,7)
Santa Anita’s Race 5 – The Turf Sprint; Purse $1,000,000 – 3:33 PM
Note: Will be run at the shorter distance of five furlongs. I needed to take a l-o-o-n-n-g hard look at this one.
Imprimis (#3) – This is an ‘all or nothing’ bet. He’s won seven times at the distance, but if he’s not the winner – he’s nowhere. Got his head handed to him at Ascot in June, and makes his third start back from that debacle. Trainer Joe Orseno hires Frankie Dettori to ride………interesting choice.
Eddie Haskell (#10) – The model of consistency, he’s never missed the board in fourteen starts at this distance. He’s finished ahead of, or beaten Stormy Liberal (winner of the last TWO editions of this race) the last three times they faced each other. Post draw hurts.
Pure Sensation (#2) – May just be the fastest sprinter, but never seems to connect on Breeder’s Cup Day. Check which horse Paco Lopez rides, as he’s recently been on Imprimis and this one – that may give you a clue.
Stormy Liberal (#6) – Won this race the last two years at prices of 7-1 and 30-1. Having lost all six races he’s started this year; it’s hard to get really enthused, but you’ll probably get another decent price if you like him today for the Hat Trick. Jockey John Velasquez gets on board for the first time.
The play – Win and show bet on #3. Exacta Partwheel 2,3,10 over 2,3,4,6,10
Santa Anita’s Race 6 – The Dirt Mile; Purse $1,000,000 – 4:10 PM
Omaha Beach (#5) – I really didn’t want to bet this horse in a race I really don’t like. I’m reluctantly choosing him by default. After being away six months, this race has ‘bounce’ written all over it. Last three Dirt Mile favorites have lost and nine of the last twelve favorites have missed the Trifecta. Chew on that…….
Coal Front (#7) – Rounding back into form from his victory at Meydan, he’s a millionaire at the distance.
Improbable (#2) – I didn’t like him in the Derby, bet against him in the Preakness and I’ll make him try to beat me again. This is not the same horse who went 3-3 last year. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke has been the rider for all four of his wins, he’s at the track – but isn’t riding?
Blue Chipper (#8) – The Pride of South Korea is certainly well bred enough, I may just go for a beer….
. The play – Win bet on #7. Exacta partwheel 7 over 2,3,5,6
What the heck, put a deuce of mad money on the Korean horse to win. #8
Santa Anita’s Race 7 – The Filly and Mare Turf; Purse $2,000,000 – 4:54 PM
Home field advantage or all world trainer? What’s a handicapper to do?
Vasilika (#7) – She’s won half the money as my second choice despite running twice the number of races, yet this 5YO is one short of a dozen wins on this course. She’ll also get teamed up with jockey Flaven Prat; one of the hottest jockeys on the planet. This should be a great turf race to watch.
Sistercharlie (#2) – She’s finished no worse than second in two years. A seven time Grade 1 winner. Would be the first ever repeat winner of this event (20 runnings).
Villa Marina (#9) – Won the Prix de’lOpera at Longchamp (one of my favorite prep races), which has produced a number of winners of this event. Europeans do very well in this race.
Fanny Logan (#12) – Has yet to lose at the ‘classic’ distance, but faces a whole different type of animal today.
The play – Exacta Partwheel 2,7,9 over 2,7,9,10,12
Santa Anita’s Race 8 – The Sprint; Purse $2,000,000 – 5:36 PM
Note: Good news for the field = Roy H has retired.
This looks strictly like a race between likely favorite Mitoli (#4) and Imperial Hint (#9). Sprinkle in a little Shancelot (#6) and Whitmore (#7) and I think you’ve got your superfecta.
The play – Double Partwheel 4,7,9 with 10
Santa Anita’s Race 9 – The Mile; Purse $2,000,000 – 6:20 PM
Without Parole (#10) – This selection is strictly a hunch play. Former Euro has been in the Chad Brown barn for a while after finishing 14th in a Grade 1 stake overseas. Three of his last four works are very good. Trainer Brown wins with 28% of new acquisitions and has a 27% strike rate with rested horses. Monster stablemate Bricks and Mortar opted for the Turf event, and you should be getting at least 20-1 on a Chad Brown horse.
Got Stormy (#6) and El Tormenta (#8) ran one-two in the Woodbine Mile, which has become a good prep for this race (A top three finisher in 10 of the last 12 years). Of the two, Got Stormy is a more consistent horse.
Uni (#11) – A winner of six of his last seven, this mare has been the most successful of this bunch. His only loss in two years was to ‘Stormy’ in Saratoga’s 4StarDave Handicap.
Circus Maximus (#9) – Some handicappers like him, I’m a little leery. Prix de Longchamp winner has never won back to back races, and Trainer Aiden O’Brien’s 0-23 with horses entered in this event. I’m willing to let him beat me for the win, but can use him in the gimmicks.
The play – Exacta Partwheel 6,10,11 over 6,9,10,11
Win and show bet #10
Pick Three 10 with 4 with (9, 10)
Pick Four 10 with 4 with (9,10) with (7,8,10,11)
Santa Anita’s Race 10 – The Distaff; Purse $2,000,000 – 7:00 PM
Midnight Bisou (#4) – Since last year’s champ; Monomoy Girl retired to the broodmare ranks, no one has beaten this daughter of Midnight Lute. In what will probably be her racing swansong – one of her rivals will need to produce a lifetime best effort to keep her from her eighth straight victory.
The play – Just watch the race
Santa Anita’s Race 11 – The Turf; Purse $4,000,000 – 7:40 PM
Note: Only three entered have run on Santa Anita’s turf course, and Magical’s late scratch due to a fever takes a little of the luster off.
Bricks And Mortar (#9) – Maybe the best American turfer right now, he’s undefeated in 2019 and never worse than third in twelve career starts. However, he’s never run this distance, he’s never run on this course, and Trainer Chad Brown has never won this race. Things that make you go hmmmm.
Old Persian (#10) – Frequent flying traveler’s passport stamps include Dubal, England and Germany before shipping to Canada and taking their Northern Dancer Handicap at this distance as the odds-on choice. Godolphin owned colt will get second time Lasix and should not be dismissed.
You can pretty much put a blanket over the rest of the field who have been trading losses to the top two and wins each other during the year. Arklow (#) maybe the best of the rest.
The play – Exacta Partwheel 9,10 over 5,9,10,11,12
Santa Anita’s Race 12 – The Classic; Purse $6,000,000 – 8:44 PM
Note: Favorites have won 30%, and have been in the money 60% of the time in the Classic.
McKinzie (#8) – The home field advantage maybe the key today, as he’s been no worse than second here in seven starts. Bob Baffert trainee has also been winning every other race since April. He was soundly beaten in last year’s Classic at Churchill, so a win today is not a given.
Vino Rosso (#10) – Controversial DQ cost him the Jockey Club Gold Cup in last – a key prep, but has reportedly been working lights out. He’s improved over his 3YO campaign, has a win on the course and will be well supported at the betting windows.
Code Of Honor (#11) – The lightliest raced of the field at nine career starts, he enters The Classic on a three race win streak as a result of the JC Gold Cup DQ. He’s never been out of the money at the distance. Trainer Shug McGaughey’s never won this race, but that could change today
Higher Power (#7) – Here’s the puzzler of the group. He’s won on mud, on the grass and at the distance. His ‘win every other’ pattern says “go”. He ran third after stumbling at the start against some of these, but was still able hit the board. If he does that today, he’s toast. Trainer John Sadler broke a LONG Breeders Cup win drought last year in this race. Maybe it’s time for two in a row?
Yoshida (#5) – Trainer Bill Mott will be trying to win two Classic races with two different horses this year. (2019 Derby – Country House) Yoshi’s winless on the year, and all but one of his career races are on grass. Wise guys like him, I have no idea what to do with him.
Elate (#6) – She’s had a terrific career and is 3-3 at this classic distance. The incredible Zenyatta is the female to beat the boys in the Breeders Cup Classic. As good Bill Mott’s 5YO is, she’s not Zenyatta.
The play.
Exacta Partwheel 8,10,11 over 7,8,10,11
As always, I wish everyone the best of luck – and safe trips for all of our Human and Equine athletes.