The 37th Edition of the Breeder’s Cup with be contested for the 2nd time in Lexington Kentucky, but for the 1st time in this series existence it will be fanless. Interesting as mother nature has put her blessing on the event with the best weather EVER for a BC in Kentucky: sunny, 70’s, and no precipitation on or leading up to the races. Should make for a perfect weekend of racing.
Turnpike Ted has full BC race analysis below, but here are some rants for the weekend:
Friday:
Race 3, #9 Order of Australia, looks like a horse that could have went in a BC race, I think they want to try lasix in a softer spot hence opting for an undercard race, live in wide open race
Race 8, #3 Dayoutoftheoffice, has done nothing wrong in her career and figures to be 3rd choice in a short field, trainer Hamm has paid his dues and deserves this.
Saturday:
Race 1, #1 Nashville, Winstar farm’s Walden said this guy is a superstar and they were seriously considering a BC race, I like that they backed off and said let’s let him grow up a mature, a short priced favorite but a free square to start off the Saturday card.
Race 8, #14 Vekoma, surprised they ended up in the sprint as he hasn’t been 3/4 since his maiden debut but should get an ideal stalking trip and look to mow them down late.
Race 11, #1 Arklow, when trainer Cox was pressed about all his BC runners he said 1 horse was just doing phenomenal, this guy.
Race 12, #2 By My Standards, has had a stellar 4 yr old campaign and will only get better with age, versatile running style makes him a live longshot.
Happy Hunting………..Tiger
Turnpike Ted’s 2020 Breeder’s Cup Commentary and Selections Friday
“Future Stars Friday” Friday, November 6, 2020
As always, please stay alert for any late program changes and scratches for both days. Off we go.
Keeneland’s Race 6 – The Juvenile Turf Sprint; Purse $1,000,000 – 2:30 PM
Ubettabelieveit (#6) – Grade 2 winner at Doncaster in last at 40-1 gave you all or nothing in last four. The race distance and post draw could allow for a nice price to start off Friday’s BC events.
Bodenheimer (#10) – It’s front end or bust for this son of obscure sire Atta Boy Roy. The short distance helps him and the major danger is to his outside. If he’s not in front at the top of the stretch, his chances are toast – but if repeats his last, he’ll be the guy to reel in late.
Golden Pal (#14) – Would be a stone cold lock if not for the post and the layoff. The best of four entered for all world turf trainer Wes Ward. He hasn’t raced since August, but shows a solid work tab at Keeneland. Can’t leave him out of the exacta, but not betting the farm.
Second Of July (#13) – He’s the only US based horse with a graded victory, and the trainer wouldn’t be here if he didn’t think he had a shot. As with the M/L favorite, the post is a concern, but if the speed falls apart, he could be picking up the pieces late at what should be a generous price.
Win Bets on #6 and #13
Exacta Partwheel 6,10,14 over 6,10,13,14
Keeneland’s Race 7 – The Juvenile Fillies Turf Purse $1,000,000 – 3:10 PM
Go Athletico (#12) – In a wide open race, he’s beaten the race’s only Grade 1 winner, Sealiway twice. He’s been no worse than second in five lifetime starts. Am hoping the extra furlong isn’t an issue and he handles the firm turf.
Sealiway (#1) – Romped to an eight length score at Longchamp in France to trounce Grade 1 competition. Will need to avoid being pinched along the rail at the start and hold off my choice late.
Cadillac (#5) – Both of his career losses were on soft grass, which should not be an issue on Friday. Has a win at the distance for should be a factor in the stretch.
Battleground (#9) – Has won his last two starts, but his last race was in July. Can never eliminate an Aidan O’Brian grass runner, but think he might need one.
Win Bet on #11 ( Gretzky The Great )
Exacta Partwheel 1,12 over 1,5,6 8,9,12
Keeneland’s Race 8 – The Juvenile Fillies; Purse $2,000,000 – 3:50 PM
Simply Ravishing (#1) – One of four unbeaten fillies to enter this gets the nod for having a Grade 1 victory over this track. Can probably throw a blanket over them at the finish line.
Girl Daddy (#5) – Grade 3 winner at Churchill Downs has been working well for this and will offer a better price in the wagering.
Dayoutoftheoffice (#3) – Frizette winners have taken four of the last nine editions.
Princess Noor (#7) – Bob Baffert trained filly is 3-3 with ease. However, this will be the horse’s first trip east and she’ll face her toughest competition to date. Willing to let her beat me at an overbet Baffert price.
Exacta partwheel 1,3,5 over 1,3,5,7
Keeneland’s Race 9 – The Juvenile Turf; Purse $1,000,000 – 4:30 PM
Campanelle (#10) – She’s 3-3 for Wesley Ward including a Grade 1 victory over males at Deauville. She’s up against some top US competition here, and she hasn’t raced since August – but her works are good, so I’ll give her a shot at what could be a slightly inflated price.
Aunt Pearl (#5) – Two confident scores including a Grade 2 win on this course. Trainer Brad Cox winning at a 38% clip. Gotta add to the exactas.
Plum Ali (#4) – Perfect record in three starts for trainer Christophe Clement including a win in Belmont’s Miss Grillo Stake. Figs have been improving with each race – could easily take it all here.
Nazuna (#6) – Been a runner up in her last two, but Trainer Roger Varian wouldn’t ship a horse over if he didn’t think it wouldn’t be competitive. Might not win, but will add underneath in then exactas.
Exacta partwheel 4,5,10 over 4,5,6,10
Keeneland’s Race 10 – The Juvenile; Purse $2,000,000 – 5:10 PM
Jackie’s Warrior (#7) – Has won all four of his races by open lengths including the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont. Son of Maclean’s Music stretches out a little more in distance – which maybe the only concern. He’s the futures favorite to win next year’s Kentucky Derby. Major Player in the finale.
Essential Quality (#5) – Godolphin owned son of Tapit will put his undefeated record on the line, and is the stiffest competition for the top choice. The rest of the field will need to find a different kind of gear to run down these two.
Exacta Box the 5-7 then
Exacta Partwheel the 5,7 with anyone else you prefer.
Turnpike Ted’s 2020 Breeder’s Cup Commentary and Selections for Saturday
Saturday, November 7, 2020
Keeneland’s Race 4 – The Filly And Mare Sprint; Purse $1,000,000 – 12:02 PM
Gamine (#2) – Starting with what should be a heavily bet Filly off her five race career history and trainer. She’s probably the fastest female dirt sprinter in the sport right now. Her race to lose.
Serengeti Empress (#7) – In what will be the last race of an excellent career, she’s finished no worse than second at this distance. If the top choice falters, she should be right there late.
Exacta partwheel 2,7 over 1,2,4,7,9
Keeneland’s Race 5 – The Turf Sprint; Purse $1,000,000 – 12:39 PM
Note: Trainer Peter Miller has won the last three editions and has #13, Texas Wedge entered.
Glass Slippers (#6) – Euro Invader has been running some impressive times on less than firm ground, and will get that chance this weekend. Has cashed vs. Grade 1 competition. Must bring her “A” Game against the boys, but I’ll take a chance for the mild upset here.
Got Stormy (#12) – Post is no bargain, but she’s changed her game from very good turf router to undefeated turf sprinter. She should be right there when the photo is taken.
Leinster (#7) – Has three wins on the course, and is lightly raced this year. He’s been first or second in 7 of 8 starts at the distance. Will be closing late with a purpose.
Imprimis (#3) – This guy was my choice in last year’s edition as an ‘all or nothing’ bet. Well, I got nothing, as he was a well beaten sixth. He shows a pattern of not winning more than two races in a row, and guess what he’s trying to do now- win a third. I’m going to let him beat me this year.
Exacta Partwheel 6,7,12 over 3,6,7,12
Keeneland’s Race 6 – The Dirt Mile; Purse $1,000,000 – 1:18 PM
Owendale (#12) – Outside posts haven’t been that successful at this dirt distance, but I’m looking for a crazy speed duel early that sets this race up for his late kick. He’s got a win on the course and looks like he’s about due.
Knicks Go (#5) – Been a different horse since joining Brad Cox’s barn, winning his last two by a combined 17 lengths. He’s going to be heavily involved in the aforementioned speed duel, and he’s taking a light year’s leap in class. Sharp customer.
Complexity (#10) – Here’s a Chad Brown dirt runner! My main concern with this 4YO is that he hasn’t won back to back races in two years, and the post draw. Mixed feelings.
Pirate’s Punch (#8) – I don’t know why I keep looking at this horse. He’s riding a two race win streak, but they were at Monmouth Park. He’s got a couple nice workouts, but will most likely be part of that front end speed blitz. He’s going to be a bomber if he does pull it out. Worth a deuce.
. Win bet on #8. Exacta partwheel 5,12 over,1,5, 8,10,12
Keeneland’s Race 7 – The Filly and Mare Turf; Purse $2,000,000 – 1:57 PM
Audarya (#11) – Longchamp’s Prix De Opera has been a good prep for this race and her last three have shown that the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Should offer a square price.
Rushing Fall (#2) – Chad Brown double millionaire loves this course, having won 5 times already. Has eleven wins and two seconds from fourteen turf starts. Will take a lot of beating.
Mean Mary (#9) – Necked by Rushing Fall in last – it broke a four race win streak. Has a win on the course and could easily turn the tables from a comfy post draw.
Cayenne Pepper (#14) – Second to Magical in June at The Curragh, this three year old has been no worse than second in eight turf starts, six of those graded stakes and been heavily backed in all of them. Post is more of an annoyance in a race of this length. Tough group.
Exacta Partwheel 2,9,11 over 2,9,11,14
Daily Double Partwheel 2,9,11 with 9,11
Keeneland’s Race 8 – The Sprint; Purse $2,000,000 – 2:36 PM
Diamond Oops (#11) – Horse has an interesting pattern involving his second race after a turf start that makes me think this horse is sitting on a big effort. This race is normally crazy anyway, let’s see if we can get rewarded for it.
Empire of Gold (#9) – Shipped in from Texas to run second to my top selection at 51-1 in his last start. His form shows him winning every other race dating back to February. This would be a really nice exacta if these top two can repeat their results.
Vekoma (#14) – Lightly raced four year old has only eight starts, winning six. He’s got a three race win streak, but they’ve come at longer distances. The post is a concern, but he’s almost impossible to leave off any tickets.
Yaupon (#10) – He’s only raced four times in his life, but he’s won them all. He’ll be facing his toughest competition to date, but he’s got a sharp bullet work over the course – who says he can’t be this good? This maybe the horse I regret not using on top – we’ll see.
Exacta Partwheel 9,11,14 over 9,10,11,14
Keeneland’s Race 9 – The Mile; Purse $2,000,000 – 3:15 PM
Note: #12, Uni = Defending Champ
Factor This (#13) – Horse has won five of his last six and turns back in distance having had clear leads this far into each of those races. The post is a concern, but his form is not. Road to the winner’s circle goes through him.
One Master (#9) – Will run her third race in a month, but has been no worse than third in her last five. In three of those five, the trackman’s comments are that she was having trouble finding room late. Trainer Bill Haggas stretches her out and she gets a decent post. Owners are Lael Stables, who owned Barbaro. The price will be right.
Ivar (#11) – Five time winner from seven starts, but is another that shows a bad habit of not being able to win back to back races since shipping here from Argentina. Another morning line favorite I’ll let beat me.
Raging Bull (#14) – Over the last two years, has faced nothing but Grade 1 caliber turf horses. Looks to be rounding into form for the ever dangerous Chad Brown..
Win and show bet on #9
Exacta Partwheel 9,13 over 2,9,11,13,14
Keeneland’s Race 10 – The Distaff; Purse $2,000,000 – 3:54 PM
Horologist (#4) – Has had much better results since joining the Bill Mott barn in July. Owners thought enough to put up the $100,000 supplemental fee to get her entered here. Hoping the two favorites set this up for a closer at a decent price.
Swiss Skydiver (#5) – Beat the boys in the Preakness at Pimlico with a gutsy effort against Authentic, who runs later in the Classic. Trainer Ken McPeek thought she would have a better chance in this spot, and I can’t argue. The horse to beat.
Monomoy Girl (#10) – Hard to place this triple millionaire as third choice, as she’s won 12 of 14 lifetime starts and won this race in 2018. Thinking more ‘co-top selections’ here.
Ollie’s Candy (#9) – She’s been more of a bridesmaid than a bride, finishing second or third in nine of her fourteen lifetime starts.
Exacta Partwheel 4,5,10 over 4,5,9,10
Keeneland’s Race 11 – The Turf; Purse $4,000,000 – 4:33 PM
Magical (#2) – Was a sick scratch from this race last year, which was actually a tougher field than what she faces today. Multiple Grade 1 winner against males and females has banked more than five million dollars in her career. Wins with best effort.
Channel Maker (#9) – The sharpest of the Americans has four wins at the distance including his last two. It’s going to be tough to try to win this on the front end, but he’s razor sharp right now.
Tarnawa (#3) – Winner of five of last six including the Prix De L’Opera in France has multiple wins at the distance. Top Irish based Trainer though is 0-16 in Breeders Cup races. Food for thought.
Exacta Partwheel 2,9 over 2,3,5,9,10
Keeneland’s Race 12 – The Classic; Purse $6,000,000 – 5:13 PM
Note: Favorites have won 30%, and have been in the money 60% of the time in the Classic. Should be a Classic Classic.
Improbable (#8) – Winner of three straight Grade 1 races by open lengths gives this Bob Baffert trainee the edge in an incredibly competitive Classic. Will need another top effort.
Maximum Security (#10) – Has only finished worse than second in thirteen career starts, which was the controversial DQ at the 2019 Kentucky Derby. His only recent loss was to my top choice in his last, but can gain some revenge with his best on Saturday. Another Baffert runner.
Tom’s d’Etat (#4) – Lost all chance stumbling at the start of his last, but still ran third. Beat the top choice at Oaklawn three races back and his eleven career wins is tops in the field.
Tiz The Law (#2) –No worse than third in eight career starts, this year’s Belmont and Travers winner faded in The Derby to Authentic. He’s had time to rest and should have a say in the outcome
Exacta Partwheel 4,8,10 over 2,4,8,10
As always, I wish everyone the best of luck – and safe trips for all of our Human and Equine athletes.