Preakness Stakes-The 149th running of the Preakness stakes is carded as race 13 this Saturday at Pimlico Racecourse, approximate scheduled post time is 7:01 PM. The field consists of 8 entrants who are vying for the 2nd Jewel of the Triple Crown with Mystik Dan trying to become the 1st Triple Crown winner since Justify controversially did it in 2018. The weather forecast is projecting isolated showers throughout the week, but Saturday is slated to have 85% chance of showers that will affect the track condition.
Kudos to team McPeek on the Oaks / Derby double, what a feat. Ken is one of the good guys in the sport, doesn’t get the same stock that Baffert, Pletcher, & Brown get but maximizes his horsepower.
The game has changed over the years, they used to run the tires off them, now you are lucky to see 6-8 starts for the whole year. That has taken a lot of emphasis on Derby runners NOT wheeling back in 2 weeks, but fortunately this year we get the 1st & 4th place finishers to show up, so on behalf of the fans, thank you.
Statistically, Bob Baffert had a 25% chance to win this race before the scratch of Muth, European bookmakers odds on Bob Baffert winning the race at that time had 4/5 which equated to 55% chance, that has now fallen to about 20%.
The rain is really going to dampen the card, lots of turf races on the undercard, plenty of scratches, hopefully Belmont at Saratoga will give us a fast strip.
The old adage, the show must go on and indeed it will. Mystik Dan really moves up with the track condition and the defection of Muth, but I still feel he could be ripe for the picking. So the question becomes, who can do it?
Some analytics to add into your handicapping:
The Preakness plays to speed. In the last 37 running’s, 24 of those 37 winners were sitting 1-4 at the first call.
Derby runners have come back to win the Preakness 42 of the last 54 editions.
The race’s history has had 73 favorites win in the 148 running’s, that is a 49% clip.
Only 6 of the last 37 races were won wire to wire.
Since 1997, 11 of the past 24 Derby winners have doubled up in the Preakness; Furthermore, 16 of the last 24 Derby winners have been no worse than 2nd
Should you be wagering on Friday, two big races on the card. Race 12 Pimlico Special for older horse, the #2 Kingsbarn jumps off the page and should be a popular winner. Race 13 is the Black Eyed Susan, wide open event that only got 8 contestants who have more questions then answers, I will stab with the #5 Gun Song.
Contenders:
#9 Imagination– If you are conspiracy theorist and somehow don’t like the Derby winner or in a lot of cases Baffert’s “B” horse shows up, well then you will land here. He’s currently 7 to 2 in the oversea’s books, frankly hasn’t done anything wrong. Frankie keeps saying this is his farewell tour, yet it seems more like Kiss or Elton John, the tunes keep playing. Sure would love to see the flying dismount, perfectly drawn and forward running style puts him in the right spot, mild upset call for Baffert’s 9th.
#5 Mystik Dan- Absolutely thrilled connections decided to enter him here for a shot at history, by doing so it will make a much more rounded race to bet. Starting with the positives, he is proven over a wet surface which he should find here. Exercise rider Albardo says he is floating over the Pimlico main while working him, and let’s face the facts, he won the hardest race to win on US soil. Now the reality, he got a golden trip, while watching the race live with a few horseplayers my only comment during the running was “wow is he getting a great run”. Lastly, if you look real close in his PP’s they only ran him back once in his career in 14 days or under and that happened last November and he absolutely flopped running a 64 Beyer with a 5th place finish. Figures to make some noise, but not positive he will get unsaddled this time in the infield.
#8 Tuscan Gold- The most inexperienced runner in the field that will be making only his 4th career start, but sports some nice ascending Beyer’s. Ran a game 3rd in LA Derby and was flattered when that winner, Catching Freedom came back and ran a solid 4th in Derby. Chad had options here to run in NY in the Peter Pan and called an audible to land here. If he takes a step forward, he can be right with them at the wire, the juice is worth the squeeze of his 8 to 1 morning line.
#3 Catching Freedom- Another horse that exits the Derby with a solid 4th place finish, the barn buzz he was just training ok going into the Derby, I think that kinda showed as he got a great journey and had no punch late for the top three. On paper, he looks like the late running exotic filler which I think he will do, just hard to see him taking a step forward against a speed bias event to figure in the top outcome.
Selections: 9-5-8-3
Betability: Minimal, with the short field and the minimal probable outcomes, wagering value will be limited.
Suggested Wagers:
1 unit Win Place #9
2 unit Exacta Box #9 with #3, #5, #8
1 unit Trifecta wheel #5 & #9 with #3, #5, #8, #9 with #2, #3, #5, #8, #9
1 unit Exacta Box saver #3, #8, #9
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#9 Imagination 7 to 2, Baffert’s backup would be favored if Dan wasn’t in here, Frankie gets the ride, lots to like.
#5 Mystik Dan- 5 to 2, Mother nature is his main real chance of repeating, I think he is vulnerable.
#8 Tuscan Gold- 5 to 1, Looks like he is on the improve and wouldn’t be surprised if he takes a big step forward.
#3 Catching Freedom 6 to 1, best late speed in the race will get a minor slice.
#2 Uncle Heavy- 15 to 1, PA bred regressed in the Wood and those runners got drilled in Derby, for Irad fans.
#6 Just Steel- 25 to 1, surprising pace presence in Derby, no logical sense running him back.
#7 Seize the Grey- 30 to 1, simply put not fast enough against these.
#1 Muguta- 30-1, love the owner’s name, Average Joe Stables, will be rooting but not betting.
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com
Note, the Belmont Stakes this year is being held at the famed Saratoga Racecourse and will be contested at the same Derby distance of a mile and a quarter, we will have write-up out by June 6th.
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