Kentucky Derby-(Louisville, Kentucky) the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is carded as race 12 this Saturday at Churchill Downs, approximate scheduled post time is 6:57PM. The field consists of 20 entrants who are vying to make history having their name forever etched in racing lore. The weather forecast is projecting a dry strip with mild temperatures, scattered rain mid-week should not affect track condition, should be a fair playing course.
Handicapping the Derby is artwork, not a science…yes yes we use scientific barometers such as speed figures, pace, jockey, trainer stats etc.. but at the end of the day this is the only race on North American soil where you get this many horses signed on and all horse will be attempting to do something none of them have done which is go a mile and a quarter. Most sports feature event is at the end of the season, NASCAR & Horse Racing display their sports in the spring.
The grey wizard, Bob Baffert is back after a few years hiatus due to the controversial medicine violation, with that comes his influence which like him or hate him, he always has a strong annual hand.
Let’s start out by giving some quick facts, the best horse is #8 Journalism, he’s on a 4-race win streak with 2 double digit 100+ Beyer Speed figures in his last 2 efforts. Only 1 other horse in the field has a 100 Beyer (#4 Rodriquez) and the last time they hooked up Journalism beat him be 11 lengths. So it’s easy to just stop there? Right? In 1985, The Villanova Wildcats were 9-point underdogs against the Georgetown Hoyas which featured Patrick Ewing, Villanova shocked the world winning 66-64. In 2008 NFL season, NY Giants played the undefeated NE Patriots who were a 12-point favorite in the game, The G Man won that 17-14 in what most consider the greatest upset in Super Bowl history. Were Villanova & NY the better teams? I think not, but they were the best teams that day, so as we piece together this Derby field, we are left to figure out whose day it will be…………
The easiest way to begin this journey is with subtraction. About 10-15 years ago, I was out with a trainer who had a horse in a big stake race and the trainer told me, I don’t like my chances, I don’t even want to run in the race but owners did. That horse ran dead last. Both #15 Render Judgement & #20 Owen Almighty trainers wanted nothing to do with this race, but owner’s pay bills and want the excitement, trust me I get it, but as gamblers line these two out.
Let’s start eliminating and identifying pretenders,
First, there is the Tiger Test, analytically I use 3 criteria below to eliminate horses, just another way to look at things statistically:
The Apollo jinx/curse was finally broken by Justify in 2018 and then again by Mage in 2023, but that is only 3 horses in history from 1882 to 2024 for that feat to be accomplished and there were tons of failed attempts in between so I won’t abandon this angle into the future as non-starting 2 year old’s are pitches in the Derby for me, but we only have one, Grande.
Since 1980, 40 of the 45 Derby winners were out of a winning dam. That is 88% and here are the ones that are NOT out of a race winning dam: Citizen Bull, Admire Daytona, Flying Mohawk, East Avenue, Tiztastic, Render Judgement, Sovereignty, & Chunk of Gold.
Since 1996, 25 of the last 29 (86%) Derby winners who crossed the wire 1st finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep; the other 3 were Mine That Bird, Giacomo, Mystik Dan, & Rich Strike (3 of the 4 longest prices ever) who finished 3rd or 4th in their final preps lighting up the board and paying over $100 to win. Citizen Bull, Neoequos, Render Judgement, Coal Battle, & Owen Almighty can be eliminated.
That screener leaves us 9 horses, probability says one of those will be getting unsaddled in the infield.
The puzzle is now starting to take shape but important there are three hurdles all 20 entrants must overcome: First time racing in a 20 horse bulky field, first time going a mile and a quarter, and carrying 126 lbs for the first time in their careers. What does the Crystal Ball say………..
Contenders:
#9 Burnham Square– I took a post-Christmas trip to Gulfstream Park on December 28th to see a solid Saturday card featuring the reigning BC Classic Champ White Abbarrio with some decent under card races. There were two maiden specials on the card won by Tappan Street & this guy. Tappan Street was my pick in here before the untimely injury defection so I had to go searching for a replacement, sentimentally I stuck to that day as he won by 9 that day, in last he beat a solid group just down the road in Keeneland 3 weeks ago, distance rating is the 2nd highest in the field, and also has the services of Hernandez who won last year. Watching him race, he keeps grinding, a trait needed for this type of race. Wilkes is a trainer that always seems to just come up short on big stage so yes I am reaching a bit, his FOY 2 back was also uninspiring, still I feel like I need to take a swing and this one will outrun his odds, batter up.
#8 Journalism– Hard to not like him and I could even end up betting him depending on how things shake out before going into the gate. Uncle Bob had a strong group this year on the West Coast and this guy obliterated all of them. The positives are easy to identify, but hey I am a gambler so trying to beat the chalk in a 20 horse Donnybrook. Some very important things to consider, first time out of the state of California, tons of speed signed on inside of him, and has only faced 4 foes in each of his last 3 starts. Hey before the baseball season started, the Dodgers were considered the best team in baseball, they might not even be the best team in their division.
#3 Final Gambit- Brad Cox always has a deep bunch of potential Derby horses, I am not sure where this Juddmonte homebred was in the pecking order to start the season, but I would venture at or near the bottom. Another thing Cox does is put them where they belong, horses that start out at “B” tracks are B horses plain and simple. So why am I even here? Well this guy has the BEST distance rating in the field, with a dosage of 2.20 with a CD of .46 which means he can run all night. Rich Strike & Animal Kingdom both were successful Turfway to CD route so the fact he hasn’t been on dirt, doesn’t scare me. Also, trip handicapping I see him sitting behind the speed hugging the rail and picking them up one by one. The only negative is the kick back on Turf /Synthetic is completely different than dirt, some horses just don’t like it so that is a big concern. Rich Strike & Mine That Bird never won another race after the Derby so a “B” horse can win the Derby, Machado is that new and upcoming rider and had a choice to ride this guy or East Avenue, 30 to 1 ML, a longshot special.
#4 Rodriquez– Baffert says you just need to let this one run and Mike Smith says he is going to go, so if you are looking for a front runner, maybe you stop here. Personally, NY preps haven’t yielded a serious contender since Funny Cide 20+ years ago so although a nice race on paper, he likes gets hooked in a speed duel and packs it. Still it’s hard to dismiss Baffert & Smith who have both smelled the roses numerous times so I respect the connections enough to not dismiss, but after the draw Uncle Bob was not smiling
Selections: 9-8-3-4
Betability: excellent betting race, major players have good post draws with a very evenly matched race which could lead to numerous rewarding combinations. This is the toughest race to handicap and win that is run in North America so there is always that chance for the unknown. Track bias and a potential scratch or two could always stir the pot. If reaching on a longshot, be sure to ladder him in the trifecta and superfecta underneath.
Suggested Wagers:
3 & 9 to Win & Place for 1 unit
8 & 9 wheeled first and second in Exacta’s with All (except the 2,5,6,11,15,20) for 1 unit
Trifecta box 8 horses for 1 unit ($336 a unit (.50 play would be $168)) 3,4,7,8, 9,10, 16, 18
Superfecta Wheel for 1 unit 8,9 / 1,3,4.7,8,9,10,12,13,14,16,17,18,19 / 1,3,4.7,8,9,10,12,13,14,16,17,18,19 / 3,9 ($546 a unit)
Saver bet: 1 unit Exacta Box 1,3,4.7,8,9,10,12,13, 16, 18 ($110)
Should you be interested in the Oaks on Friday, it is actually a powerhouse field headlined by #11 Good Cheer, hard to knock her as she is 6 for 6 and has won by open lengths in each race. 6/5 ML but anything above 4/5 to me is a fair win price, lots of chances underneath for price inflaters.
Graded Analysis with fair value win odds
#9 Burnham Square – 9 to 1, a fighter which is needed in this type of race, great post and has a good target to his left to follow all the way around.
#8 Journalism- 7 to 2, nicknamed King Kong and will need to be every bit of the that to win the greatest 2 mins in sports, the obvious choice.
#3 Final Gambit- 12 to 1, not sure how fast he is, but will be doing his best work late and will be a live longshot.
#4 Rodriquez- 10 to 1, catch me if you can, he will have company from the bell, but all-star connections can’t be dismissed easily.
#7 Luxor Cafe- 12 to 1, Forever Young proved last year, it’s just a matter of time a foreign import jumps up and wins this race, well supported at windows.
#10 Grande- 20 to 1, Repole has had an interesting last 3 Derby’s, this year flying under radar but not without a big chance.
#18 Sovereignty- 12 to 1, blow out win here last year so a horse for course, been solid since, another with a big chance I just don’t like where he sits trip wise.
#17 Sandman- 14 to 1, a horse not for the course as 0 for 3 with 79 Beyer, runs erratic got a great setup in Ark Derby, underlay.
#1 Citizens Bull – 20 to 1, Looking At Lucky drew the rail in 2010, got hammered and never factored, could have same fate.
#16 Coal Battle- 30 to 1, one of the rags to riches story in the race, 6% Jock, don’t ignore as he has a punchers chance.
#12 East Avenue- 25 to 1, the biggest wildcard in the field, early Derby book fav has been in and outer, wouldn’t surprise me wherever he finishes.
#21 ***Baeza- 10 to 1, would need to draw into the field with a scratch but if does can run, brother Mage won in 23’
#13 Publisher- 40to 1, still a maiden but gets Irad and has no pressure, could be an exotics filler with right trip.
#14 Tiztastic- 40 to 1, experienced runner makes his 9th career start so seasoning is there.
#19 Chunk of Gold- 30 to 1, 2nd rags to riches story but the only paid $2,500 for him, small horse not built for a 20 horse affair.
#6 Admire Daytona- 50 to 1, from here down you can start lining them out, Luxor Café owns 2 decisions against him.
#15 Render Judgement – 50 to 1, connections get good seats and a saddle pad, he will be in 1X next start, for McPeek fans only/
#5 American Promise- 50 to 1, Coach likes to run in the big races, running style eliminates him from even minor rewards.
#11 Flying Mohawk 75 to 1, true turf horse will make his 1st and last start on the main track in here.
#2 Neoequos – 150 to 1, connections do own White Abbarrio so they have $$ to burn like the entry fee in here.
#20 Owen Almighty- 150 to 1, loved the hats they wore on draw night, sprinting breeding in a classic route race = disaster.
This year’s Preakness should see some very intriguing new shooters, be sure to follow along with my on the Triple Crown trail as that publication will be out May 15 at as well as the Belmont Stakes on June 5th at www.equineinvestor.com
Don Tiger
-Professional handicapper at www.equineinvestor.com